3 Unpopular Predictions for The Vikings Offseason
K. Joudry
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Since the season ended, Vikings fans have been clamouring for firm news and updates about the direction of their beloved team. The Vikings offseason got a fresh infusion of certainty when the news emerged that Brian Flores was bringing his defensive brilliance to the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Rejoicing occurred as far as the eye can see.
Unfortunately, there hasn’t been too much else when it comes to 100% definitive news. Clarity is scarce; conjecture isn’t.
While there is still time, I’ll be passing along some of my unpopular educated guesses about how things will proceed. Nothing is based off of insider info. Rather, I’m merely assessing the team that I’ve followed on a (near) daily basis for several years, gingerly proclaiming that this is how I see things shaking out.
Predictions for The Vikings Offseason
1) The Vikings Don’t Cut Both Starting Linebackers
Asking Mr. Flores to almost completely recreate the linebacker group may be foolhardy.
Brian Asamoah is a promising talent. He showed off some serious wheels as both a special teams ace and defensive weapon in 2022. Would it be misguided, though, to assume he can take over as a full-time starter by clearing the veteran competition currently standing in his way?
Look, I get that Eric Kendricks and Jordan Hicks (whom I’ve discussed here and here) offer some potentially huge financial savings ($14.5 million if both are cut). I also get that Kendricks has a history of elite play and that Hicks was one of the first moves of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s time as the purple GM.
My best guess is that one will be let go due to cap concerns and the other will have his deal adjusted, thus providing a veteran safety net for the Flores defense.
One other overlooked factor: Troy Dye is entering the final year of his rookie deal, so a cut would free up a bit more than $1 million. His length and speed make him a terror on special teams (that’s a compliment), but we’ve already seen the new regime be quite willing to move on from players drafted by the former GM/HC duo. Subtracting Dye – a move I’d be concerned about largely due to the special teams excellence – would further unsettle the LB spot.
Add it all together and I’m of the belief that Minnesota will proceed into free agency with Kendricks or Hicks and then Asamoah as the top two LBs.
2) The Vikings Choose to Extend Kirk Cousins for 2 Years
We won’t spend too much time on this one since an awful lot of folks grow weary of the Kirk Cousins chatter. It’s a key component of the Vikings offseason discussions.
The thinking is that another extension is likely simply because of the potential cap savings. An extension could liberate more than $23 million on the cap. Merely tacking on 2 years to do the deal won’t give the Vikings access to all those potential savings, but Kwesi Adofo-Mensah would still get some coveted wiggle room.
Cousins is getting older, but the man hasn’t lost zip on his passes. More importantly, he also hasn’t succumbed to injury. Now, the team needs to make life easier for their QB1, and that starts with cleaner protection.
Might a few extra bucks make it easier to invest up front? Look for an extension that adds on a couple years.
3) None of the Big-Name Veterans (Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, etc.) Get Traded
For the most part, teams are going to look toward free agency and then the draft to fill their needs. Once the draft ends, teams will then circle back to the roster, asking, “what’s the best way to patch holes X, Y, and Z?”
Much of the appeal of this common approach is that it gives teams a fair bit of autonomy when it comes to the finances. The incoming FAs agree to deals that the team accepts since they, well, negotiated it. Rookies come in on fixed deals, meaning every squad gets the benefit of young talent for cheap.
The broader point, folks, is that teams are often wary about trading for well-paid veterans, even if those players have a sterling reputation.
Consider, for instance, Adam Thielen, someone who has been in the trade rumors. There are a lot of teams around the NFL that’d welcome Mr. Thielen’s services. What remains to be seen is if any will ship out draft capital – a precious, coveted commodity – to bring him and his large cap hit to town. After all, he’s climbing into his mid 30s and hasn’t surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for 4-straight seasons.
Forced to guess, I’d say that Minnesota’s trade candidates have been mostly overlooked: Cameron Dantzler, D.J. Wonnum, Camryn Bynum, and other young, inexpensive players. Every team will have a draft evaluation of these guys that’s only a few years old and every coaching staff likes to think they’re the ones with the secret recipe to maximize a young player’s career. Plus, these players are playing on cheap contracts, making them easy to fit into the budget.
Before the season began, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah pursued this precise strategy, trading for Ross Blacklock and Jalen Reagor. Maybe we’ll see things head in the other direction with Minnesota sending out players on their rookie deals.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
