Jordan Hicks an Automatic Cap Casualty? Not so Fast.

Sep 11, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings linebacker Jordan Hicks (58) sacks Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) in the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Jordan Hicks had a relatively disappointing season in 2022.

Coming into the year, there was optimism that we’d see a significantly improved defense. Unfortunately, they looked totally overmatched most weeks, and the starting two LBs have been scapegoated as being too old and slow.

Jordan Hicks and the 2023 Vikings Defense

Indeed, there has been no shortage of digital ink spilled on how Jordan Hicks and Eric Kendricks are prime cut candidates. Moving on from the veteran pair would free up $14.5 million.

a look at the giants
Sep 25, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings linebacker Jordan Hicks (58) and safety Camryn Bynum (24) tackle Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams (30) during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

One wonders, though, if Minnesota’s leadership views things in an identical manner. Since beginning as a Vikings writer, something I’ve learned on various occasions is that those inside the league – executives, coaches, scouts – often view things differently from those outside the league. Not always, but often.

Given that Kevin O’Connell decided to move on Ed Donatell, there is at least some reason to believe that much of the struggle in 2022 had to do with scheme and/or play calling. If I’m not mistaken, Fritz Shurmur talks about how to allow your players to play fast in his book Coaching Team Defense. A central takeaway is that spending too much time thinking on the field is the death knell of fast defense. The more a brain works the slower the feet move.

The point, folks, is that Hicks may look a lot more spry in a different scheme. What are the chances Jordan Hicks would look significantly faster in the Brian Flores defense?

Jan 1, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Minnesota Vikings linebacker Jordan Hicks (58) gestures after recovering a fumble by Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (not shown) during their game at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Wm. Glasheen-USA TODAY Sports

True, he isn’t going to remind anyone of vintage Eric Kendricks, a linebacker capable of hanging with Davante Adams burning it down the seam. It is possible, though, that Hicks could be a bit of a thumper, a plus run defender who can also create pressure on third downs.

Hicks blitzed 17 times last season, an average of once per game. Previously, he blitzed 86 times (2019), 89 times (2020), and 49 times (2021). Quite often, the best coaches are the ones who lean into their players’ strengths. Identify what a player can do at a high level and then allow the player to do that. Should Hicks have been sent on way more blitzes?

By the end of the season, Jordan Hicks finished as the 34th linebacker on PFF. He had an 80.2 run defense grade, the 12th-best grade out of the 85 who are considered. His 71.5 pass-rush grade comes in at 15th. It’s his coverage grade – 52.5 – where he struggled. More than 76% of passes into his coverage went for completions.

At a $6.5 million cap hit, Hicks finds himself in the salary cap middle class. It’s neither a huge nor an insignificant total. As a result, one wonders if Flores will consider retaining the veteran to help steady the defense and to maintain some continuity. Allow him to be strong against the run and to be an extra pass rusher.

We all know that difficult decisions are going to be made. The finances make it a necessity. Don’t be totally shocked, though, if Jordan Hicks ends up sticking around for another season.

Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference, PFF, and Over the Cap helped with this piece.