The Spectacular Rise and Crushing Fall of Josh Dobbs: Who’s Next?
Tom Woldum
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From the moment we first saw him elude a tackle, we all wanted to believe in Josh Dobbs.
To believe that he was a gift from God, dropped in the laps of the Minnesota Vikings immediately after the season-ending injury to Kirk Cousins. That somehow, the journeyman who had been the property of seven previous NFL teams and owned a career quarterback rating of 78.6 over 6 seasons, 16 games, and 8 starts, was somehow overlooked and underused by all of those teams, a true diamond in the rough.
That he was, in fact, a star in the making, and that the Vikings were the team who could unlock his unusual talents. Upon landing in Minnesota, he immediately set to work learning new names, learning a new playbook, and setting us all up for a crushing fall.
We all know the story. Thrust into his first game in purple as an injury substitute for Jaren Hall, Josh Dobbs engineered an unlikely victory over the hated Packers, while displaying a mobility and knack for buying time for downfield passes and yards for key first downs that haven’t been seen in these parts since the days of Francis Tarkenton.
It was inspiring and refreshing, a welcome change from Cousins’ drop-back style. When Dobbs engineered another victory in similar fashion the following week, we all dared to wonder how we could have been so lucky.
Was this man with the magical legs, the degree in aerospace engineering, and the calming appearance of the Dalai Lama The Answer? To our playoff aspirations? To our quarterback conundrum in 2024? Was this a future Hall of Famer and subject of twin biopic projects to be developed in the future, one by ESPN Films and the other by the Hallmark Channel?
Those hyper-optimistic dreams may have been misguided wishful thinking, but nonetheless they did nothing to prepare us for the next two games and the massive emotional takedown that came with them. Two maddening losses in winnable games against mediocre (Denver) and miserable (Chicago) teams. 8 (!) turnovers by Dobbs, via 3 fumbles and 5 interceptions.
The NFL’s third-worst passer rating, ahead of two disastrous Quarterbacks in Zach Wilson and Mac Jones. The Monday night loss in which the defense allowed zero touchdowns, and the Vikings still came up on the short end was more than telling. For a team who was had already turned the ball over more than any team in the league, these two Dobbs performance were more than just problematic, they were apocalyptic. For an athlete who had convinced the usually-cynical national media that his was a Cinderella story, the pumpkin analogies were both predictable and wholly appropriate. Not to mention depressing for all of us Vikings fans.
Is It Time To Move On From Josh Dobbs?
Kevin O’Connell has been masterful this season in leading a team that lost both Cousins and Justin Jefferson on a tear that temporarily brought them two games above .500 in mid-November, and within shouting distance of the division-leading Lions. Minnesota now sits at 6-6 with their bye on Sunday, and as of now still holds the “if the season were to end now” final playoff position.
Looking ahead, O’Connell is facing one of the toughest coaching decisions of his two-year career as a Head Coach: stick with the near-savior who may or may not have been doing it with mirrors before it all fell apart? Bring in the career backup in Nick Mullens, who may be viewed as a steadier hand but has, in fact, also been a turnover machine with 22 interceptions and 8 fumbles over his 17 starts since 2018? Or bring on the untested 25-year-old rookie Jaren Hall?
With an extra week to think about it, O’Connell is not yet tipping his hand. But from where I’m sitting this shouldn’t be as tough a call as it may seem. To me there are three questions at play here:
Number one, who can best feed the ball downfield to Jefferson as he comes off the injured list? Any *real* aspirations the Vikings may have for the post-season are going to be laid squarely on the shoulders of their best player, so who’s best suited to put the ball in JJ’s hands?
Josh Dobbs can make a nice throw now and then, but he can also miss painfully downfield (see: Jordan Addison wide open down the left sideline last week, with Dobbs missing him and the touchdown that would have come with an adequate throw.) Dobbs is clearly the best option for running around like a prison escapee surrounded by armed guards, but for making precision passes? Not so much. Mullens feels like Dobbs without the mobility or the aerospace expertise. Jaren Hall? Who knows, but maybe it’s time to find out.
Number two, who can be the answer to the Vikings’ season-long turnover problems?
Dobbs and Mullens, as detailed in the previous paragraphs, are both likely to be part of the problem, not part of the solution. Hall? He’s a rookie, and likely to play like one. Can he display the maturity, the downfield vision, and the decision-making prowess required to avoid the brutal mistakes? Who knows, but maybe it’s time to find out.
Number three, who has the best chance to grow with the experience, and has the potential to actually become a longer-term solution, especially if the Vikings were to fail to resign Cousins?
Not the journeymen Dobbs or Mullens. Hall, the fifth-round pick in this year’s draft was chosen, in theory, as a dart-throw that could hit the bullseye, no matter how unlikely. Realistically, Hall is the only possible answer to this question, and even at that it’s obviously a big question mark. Is he a potential starter in this league, or a likely career backup, just like Dobbs or Mullens? Who knows, but maybe it’s time to find out.
The consequences of going with the younger Hall may, emotionally, feel sky-high: Minnesota is on the cusp of defying all logic and qualifying for the NFL Playoffs. To complete that dream, each win will be vital, and Hall is as unproven as they come. Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens may be far from perfect, but they’ve been around the block and may provide the stability that Hall is too green to deliver.
Yet, practically speaking, there are absolutely no real consequences at play here. If Jaren Hall turns out to be too erratic and unreliable to deliver the needed wins at season’s close, if he plays his way into the same backups-for-life club with Dobbs and Mullens, and the Vikings fall short of the playoffs—let’s be honest here—we’ll simply be disappointed a week or two earlier than we might have been.
These Vikings may or may not slip into the post-season tournament, but they are not destined to attain the big goals: none of these three choices are viable candidates to lead an already-flawed squad all the way to the NFC Championship Game, to the Super Bowl, to a Championship. Those are accomplishments that require strength under center, not the flyers at football’s most important position that these three are. At best, this is a one-and-done playoff team, and the questions about 2024 are already beginning to pile up, so why not find out what the kid has to offer?
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