The Cost of Doing Business
K. Joudry
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Trade charts, when properly used, are helpful tools for discerning whether a trade is fair. Another critical tool is to look at recent history. How many picks have teams been willing to move to snag their coveted draft slot? As many of you know by now, the Vikings find themselves involved in some draft rumors. Can recent history help us understand what could plausibly happen?
The most notable trades often involve QBs. Similar to contracts, draft trades with QBs involve the most value. The deal that allowed Chicago to hop up to 11th to snag Justin Fields is an interesting one. The Giants got the 20th and 164th picks in 2021; they also received the 7th and 103rd picks in 2022. Therein lies the appeal of a future first: the Bears believed they’d be a good team and not one that’s picking in the top 10. Chicago miscalculated, so New York benefits.
When the Dolphins wanted to jump from 12th to 6th in the 2021 draft, they needed to trade away #12, a fourth, and a 2022 first to the Eagles. In the end, the Dolphins went for a receiver. It’s also notable that the Eagles didn’t stay put at #12. Instead, they partnered the 12th pick with a third-rounder to hop up to 10. The Vikings could therefore move up a spot or two with either a Day 2 or high Day 3 pick. One thinks of Derek Stingley Jr. falling to somewhere in the 8-10 range.
In 2019, the Steelers moved from 20th to 10th to draft LB Devin Bush. They ended up trading “the 20th and 52nd pick of the 2019 draft along with a 2020 third round pick to the Denver Broncos.” It’s a good comparable for this year, especially since there has been a lot of chatter about Pittsburgh possibly looking to move up.
The point of all these examples, folks, is to suggest that the Vikings could do well trading down in the draft. Dropping from 12th into the late-teens or early twenties could reasonably come at the cost of a 2nd and more. There’d be very little reason to pull off that deal if it involved anything less. If a team is making a move for a QB – like with the Bears and Giants last season – the Vikings could even demand a future first.
Last season, the Vikings went from 14th to 23rd. Doing so meant they picked up the 66th and 86th picks (with Minnesota also sending out the 143rd). That kind of return is underwhelming compared to some past deals. Thankfully, Christian Darrisaw looks like he’ll be great, so it’s hard to be too critical. Once Minnesota is on the clock, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah should avoid moving down unless he can get more than the Vikings’ most first-round draft trade.
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