When A Tidal Wave of Comp Picks Looks Likely to Crash into the Vikings
Lately, comp picks have been a subject that has generated interest among those who track the Minnesota Vikings.
Right now, the Vikings are sitting on a ton of contract-year players. Minnesota is going to keep some of these guys — there are extension candidates — but there are still going to be notable players opting out of work in the Twin Cities. The possibility of future comp picks therefore looks pretty high.
The Comp Picks & The Vikings
Admittedly, the NFL’s compensatory pick wizards are difficult to pin down. Like Gandalf, they want to keep their secrets. Nevertheless, there are some basic ideas that are easy to discern.
The league likes to introduce some level of parity. Or, at least, pay lip service to the idea of parity. Compensatory picks are therefore introduced as a way of — wait for it — compensating teams that see pricey free-agent talent depart for a new team. The NFL is basically saying, “Yikes, you’ve lost some good players. Take this pick(s) for your troubles.”
When Kirk Cousins left for Atlanta in 2024 at the price of $180 million across four years, the Vikings gained a 3rd. When Sam Darnold left for Seattle in 2025 for north of $100 million across three years, the Vikings gained another 3rd. All along, that was Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s plan.
Losing strong passers hurts. Helping to assuage the concern was the promise of a reasonably promising pick. The gamble on Cousins paid off; the gamble on Darnold did not. Regardless, that was the decision that Adofo-Mensah made.
Now, here’s the critical detail to remember: comp picks go beyond just QBs and the 3rd Round.
The 2026 NFL Draft involves the Denver Broncos gaining a 7th. Why? Simply because running back RB Javonte Williams got signed for a $3 million deal and then went on to have a productive season where he was leaned on heavily. Applying this concrete example to the Vikings is helpful.
If, for instance, Minnesota sees several players leave for deals that (as an easy number) average $5 million or more per year, then there could be a pile of comp picks upcoming. Minnesota could offset those incoming picks — losing a $5M player while signing a qualifying $5M player means the NFL sees no need for draft pick compensation — but failing to offset them would mean being able to welcome upward of four comp picks.
Check out some notable contract-year players:
- Ivan Pace Jr., LB
- Jay Ward, S
- Jordan Mason, RB
- T.J. Hockenson, TE
- Kyler Murray, QB
- Isaiah Rodgers, CB
- Ryan Van Demark, OT
- Blake Brandel, OT/OG/C
- Blake Cashman, LB
- Brian O’Neill, RT
- Andrew Van Ginkel, EDGE
- Aaron Jones, RB
- Carson Wentz, QB
- Johnny Hekker, P
- Andrew DePaola, LS
The list above isn’t gospel, a definitive final word that accounts for every player working on the last year of their deal. Nevertheless, the names included above all belong to players who have established NFL careers. Some are making very good money. Others are closer to modest or medium money.
And, of course, there are some who are going to remain. Others will walk away.
Just as a hypothetical, consider a world where Pace rebounds, leading to a three-year contract for $24 million. Cashman walks, too, leaving for the promise of a $6 million deal. Jones, Rodgers, and (gasp) Murray choose new teams, too. Potentially, there are five comp pick possibilities (a team can only gain 4 comp picks). Two or three could get offset with Minnesota bringing talent to town, but there could still be two or three picks added into the mix.
As things stand, there’s a ton of focus on the 2026 NFL Draft. There’s then the possibility of more comp pick help in the 2027 NFL Draft. Keeping an eye on the current draft and then the one to follow is well and good.
Simply note that the Vikings — a team that is planning several years in advance — are in a decent position for a tidal wave of comp picks due to what’s going to take place next March.
