If they Play their Cards Right, Could The Vikings Complete the Triple Play?
The Vikings are moving ahead with J.J. McCarthy as the QB1. No amount of Kevin O’Connell evasiveness undermines that basic reality.
One does wonder, though, if Sam Howell’s addition opens an opportunity for the rare triple play: gaining yet another high-end compensatory pick for a third straight offseason (the GM equivalent of a triple play in baseball). The thinking is that if he gets some on-field time, does well, and isn’t extended, Howell may get signed to a reasonably large contract. Would it be large enough to kick a comp pick over in the Vikings’ direction?
The Vikings & The Comp Pick Potential
Now, consider what isn’t being said: cheering for some sort of J.J. McCarthy misfortune. Rather, the idea is that Sam Howell somehow shows off promise, enough to convince the QB-starved NFL to hand over a beefy contract.
A couple of years ago, Kirk Cousins said goodbye after accepting a four-year deal for $180 million (not happening for Howell). More recently, Sam Darnold walked away for the allure of a three-year pact coming in at $100.5 million (not happening for Howell).
Does something closer to Daniel Jones enter the realm of possibility?
Getting the chance to be the Colts’ QB1 came at the cost of a single-season deal coming in at $14 million. Per Over the Cap, the deal generated a compensatory pick value in the 5th Round. So, smack dab in the middle of a comp picks range that extends from the 3rd to the 7th.
Sam Howell, the clear favorite to be the QB2, is going into the best environment of his career with the Minnesota Vikings. The passer offers pretty good size at 6’1″ and 220 pounds. Most appealing, perhaps, is that he’s only 24 and has played in twenty career NFL games; eighteen of those games were as a starter.
Sam Howell’s career numbers include a jumble of good and bad. He’s sitting at a respectable 62.6% completion rate — better than Darnold’s career number — and has 4,139 yards, 22 passing touchdowns, and 23 interceptions on his résumé. Again, good and bad all clustered together.
Keep in mind, of course, that the bulk of those statistics arrived while putting in work as a Commander in 2023. Until recently, Washington was a disaster of a team, so Howell deserves some grace for some of the blemishes. Most prominently, the interceptions.
Bring things back around to the main issue: can the Vikings somehow land a coveted compensatory selection next offseason due to yet another quarterback signing elsewhere for major money?
To do so, some concoction of evidence is going to need to get tossed into the same cauldron and stirred up before free agency reaches the frenzy. Could, for instance, Sam Howell’s past production, youth, and single season as a Kevin O’Connell understudy make him attractive on the open market? Yes, quite possibly, but not attractive enough to land major money.
What happens, though, if he has a sizzling preseason? That’s a good start. Maybe toss-in some late-game work where he shows good command of the offense, moving the team down the field with efficiency and confidence. The cherry on top could be the chance to start the Week 18 game since Minnesota is locked into their playoff spot. Shine in that moment and then there’s a bit more evidence to support a team handing over good money.
The above listed possibilities are precisely that: possibilities. A lot would need to go right for all of these things to occur and then coalesce in a manner that allows Mr. Howell to get some good money on the open market in 2026.
Do note, however, that Justin Fields is generating the highest compensatory pick in the 4th Round due to his two-year, $40 million deal. Could Howell get himself into a similar range — or perhaps a bit higher — so that Minnesota can yet again snag a valuable compensatory pick for a departing quarterback?
Unless something unforeseen (Howell wins the QB competition) or something unfortunate (a serious McCarthy injury) happens, Sam Howell is unlikely to earn enough snaps to eventually convince a team to give him a huge payday that rivals Kirk Cousins/Sam Darnold. As a result, the triple play — getting a 3rd for a third straight year — appears very unlikely.
Something in the Daniel Jones/Justin Fields range, however, could occur if everything goes right for a Minnesota Vikings team that is gearing up for contention in 2025.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and Bluesky (@VikingsGazette). If you feel so inclined, subscribe to his Substack, The Vikings Gazette, for more great Vikings content.
