The J.J. McCarthy Trade: An Initial Outlook, Analysis, and Thoughts
Easy to forget, perhaps, but J.J. McCarthy arrived in the Twin Cities after a trade up the board.
GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was sitting in the team’s organic draft slot at No. 11. With ice water in his veins, Adofo-Mensah saw four passers get scooped up in the opening eight picks as the Michigan passer dropped down the board. Adofo-Mensah finally decided it was time to lean into his draft capital, forfeiting a trio of picks to get up to No. 10 to make McCarthy a Viking. How does that decision look?
The J.J. McCarthy Trade After a Year
For the sake of argument, assume that every player involved in the swap achieves their full potential. That scenario would involve the Vikings winning the trade by a country mile.
McCarthy alone is enough to give the edge to Minnesota. After all, we’re talking about a passer who seems capable of being the franchise quarterback for a decade (or more). Fulfilling that ability would make the quick hop up the board more than worth it, especially if the team overcomes the curse by finally snagging that elusive Lombardi while McCarthy is the main sheriff in town.
Before going any further, though, consider the full details of the trade. Check it out:
The Vikings Gained:
- No. 10 (1st RD, 2024): J.J. McCarthy, Quarterback
- No. 203 (6th RD, 2024): Will Reichard, Kicker
The Vikings Lost the Chance to Draft:
- No. 11 (1st RD, 2024): Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Offensive Tackle
- No. 129 (4th RD, 2024): Isaac Guerendo, Running Back
- No. 157 (5th RD, 2024): Chau Smith-Wade, Corner
The Jets picked up an upside offensive tackle after dropping a single spot. PFF suggests he had a respectable rookie season, finishing with a 61.2 grade that New York will be hoping soars into the 70s and 80s before long. He got dinged with allowing 1 sack, 4 QB hits, 23 pressures while being guilty of 7 penalties.
Meanwhile, the other selections that got sent over to New York were later traded away. The 4th got used on Guerendo, a runner who showed promise as a rookie in San Francisco (has a runner ever not shown promise with Kyle Shanahan?). Maybe ironically, the ability Guerendo showed — his 84 carries went for an efficient 420 yards (5.0 YPC average) and 4 scores — may have made the 49ers more willing to move out Jordan Mason in the trade with the Vikings. After all, the 49ers’ young runner also turned 16 targets into 15 catches for 152 yards. Efficient.
Finally, there’s Smith-Wade, the corner who is seeking to help the Panthers in their rebuild. He played in fourteen games as a rookie, piling up 39 tackles, 1 interception, 1 pass defended, and 1 forced fumble. He’s 22 and played quite a bit in his debut season. Can his game soar pretty high? If so, then using a 5th on Smith-Wade was a great call from Carolina.
Meanwhile, J.J. McCarthy has proven very little. Or, at least, he hasn’t proven much on the field since he has just a single preseason game of NFL experience. He did play well, but there’s much that still needs to happen before he can comfortably wear the QB1 crown.
The good news is simply that he is impressing teammate and coach alike (which is to say nothing of Adofo-Mensah being impressed). The kid has a work ethic and a brain in his head. Partner that with being a great athlete alongside a history of winning at high levels — but, of course, not in the NFL, as mentioned — and there’s reason for optimism.
The cherry on top? Mr. Will Reichard. True, the kicker didn’t have a spotless debut season, but he showed enough to inspire optimism. Seeing him fully lockdown the K1 spot by upping his mediocre FG% (80% in 2024 due to 24/30 kicking) would be a nice gust of wind in the Vikings’ sails.
Don’t forget that the rookie was flawless on extra points. Repeat that component of things and Matt Daniels will be a happy coordinator.
Consider, as well, that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made another trade up in the opening round of 2024, picking up edge rusher Dallas Turner. A year after the deal, the move looks pretty questionable given how steep the price ended up being. But, of course, much remains to be determined.
Seeing all of J.J. McCarthy, Dallas Turner, and Will Reichard get to their full potential in their respective phases of football — but especially McCarthy — would mean Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did some nice work in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and PFF helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and Bluesky (@VikingsGazette). If you feel so inclined, subscribe to his Substack, The Vikings Gazette, for more great Vikings content.