Here Is How Oddsmakers See the Vikings QB Situation Shaking Out

Nov 3, 2019; Kansas City, MO, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) warms up before the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

When pondering the Vikings QB situation heading into 2024, speculation runs wild about who will ultimately lead the team to potential Lombardi glory. Even Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, amid all his insights, remains uncertain about who will helm the squad come August. 

If you’re like me though, and you cannot wait to figure out who will be starting for the Vikings come next season, you turn to the most accurate speculators of all: Vegas. Here are what various oddsmakers have to say about all things from Kirk Cousins’ departure to Russell Wilson in purple next season. And yes, I will explain what each line means if you’re not adept to gambling lines. Also please note, lines are subject to change with time and are not uniform across all platforms. 

Projections for the Next Vikings QB

Vikings QB
Oct 23, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) passes against the San Francisco 49ers in the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Kirk Cousins: +135 (Implied 42.5%) via DraftKings

Real quick, before we begin. For those who do not know, the “+” sign in front of odds indicates that it is the less likely scenario. To put it in simpler terms, +135 means if I bet $100 dollars on this, I would receive $135 in profit if this happened. While the – sign indicates that the scenario is more likely to happen. 

While Cousins is still the most likely of these quarterbacks to be gearing up in purple, his odds are increasingly looking less and less likely. With reports coming out that he will be prioritizing money, the Falcon prioritize him over Fields, and the fact that the Vikings simply cannot compete financially with Atlanta – the cards seem set on the Cousins move. 

The more interesting story here is the drastic change in the Falcons odds from +190 to -175 meaning Vegas thinks he’s more likely to make the move to ATL with an implied 63.64% chance. Safe to say his days in Minnesota may be numbered. 

J.J. McCarthy: +450 (Implied 18.18%) via DraftKings

Whether Kirk Cousins comes back to Minnesota or not, it is likely the Vikings will be looking to solidify who their future play caller will be. The national championship winning Wolverine just happens to be right within the Vikings wheelhouse at pick 11. While +450 is still a bit of a longshot, the Vikings do currently hold the best odds at securing him (tied with the Broncos) since there is so much ambiguity that comes with the draft. The Raiders sit at +500 (16.67%) and the Falcons sit at +550 (15.38%). 

Jan 1, 2024; Pasadena, CA, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws a pass against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first half in the 2024 Rose Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Fields +550 (Implied 15.3%) via DraftKings

Justin Fields to Atlanta seemed like a shoe in just a few short days ago at -450 (81.82%). However, with the Kirk Cousins news previously discussed, the line for Fields moved along with it. The Falcons are still the favorites at +110 (47.62%), however the Vikings have inched a bit closer to +550. While a trade within the division seems unlikely, Fields would prove to be one of the better options for a young bridge quarterback. 

Russell Wilson +1000 (9.09%) Via DraftKings

With Monday’s “breaking” news of the Broncos Country quarterback being released, there are undoubtedly suitors to follow. If you read my January 25th piece, you’d know that I am breathing a sigh of relief of the likelihood of signing Russell Wilson being relatively low. Although the Broncos will be eating a super-size-me majority of his contract, I still am against the potential signing. If you want to look at the situation more positively though, Wilson could prove to be a cheap veteran who could help usher in a future QB, especially a mobile one (i.e., Jayden Daniels) Either way, the odds Ciara and her husband will be moving to the Twin Cities remain relatively low. 

Jayden Daniels +1200 (7.69%) via Fox Sports

To reference the paragraph above, the Vikings are not out of the Jayden Daniels sweepstakes. Although, we would certainly have to package up pick 11 along with more future assets to move up and get him, it might prove to be worth it. Minnesota currently sits with the 6th best odds to land the 2023 Heisman winner at +1200. That currently sits us behind Washington, New England, Atlanta, New York and Las Vegas. 

Oct 21, 2023; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) celebrates a touchdown against the Army Black Knights during the first half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Drake Maye +1500 (6.25%) via Sam Richardson’s Brain

Yes, my brain, you read that right. This might come as a shocker but my brain certainly should not be trusted as a reputable oddsmaker. I could not find reliable and up to date odds for the Vikings to move up and draft Drake Maye.

That being said, I don’t think it is out of the picture that the Vikings sell the farm to move up for the second best QB prospect in the draft. It has come out recently that the Vikings front office “adores” the kid from North Carolina. Although the odds seem low, I think we should be high on him. Remember, O’Connell has gone on the record stating non-negotiable traits for his quarterbacks include accuracy, toughness and the ability to process a lot of information. Maye seems to be able to do all three. This seems to be a home run pick and could ultimately change the course of the franchise. 

Overall, I hope I speak for all fans when I say we should be thrilled with whatever direction the front office decides to take us. With free agency being on March 13th and the draft being April 25th, we should start to see some domino’s starting to fall pretty soon. Let’s get our popcorn ready and enjoy the show.