Could UNC QB Drake Maye Be the True QB1 in the 2024 NFL Draft?
Josh Frey
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With the Vikings’ season coming to an end this past weekend following their loss to the Detroit Lions, it’s time to begin looking ahead at a few potential 2024 NFL Draft prospects for Minnesota.
We began this year’s Vikings Draft Thermometer series with an examination of USC QB Caleb Williams, and today, we’ll be continuing the quarterback theme by taking a look at UNC QB Drake Maye. The quarterback prospect has spent his entire three-year collegiate career with the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Overview
- Height: 6’5″
- Weight: 220 pounds
- Arm Length: TBD
- Hand Size: TBD
- 40-Yard Dash: TBD
- School: North Carolina
- Games Watched: South Carolina (2023), Minnesota (2023), Miami (2023), NC State (2023)
Statistics
Passing
- 2022: 342/517 (66.2%), 4321 yards, 38 TDs, 7 INTs (14 games)
- 2023: 269/425 (63.3%), 3608 yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs (12 games)
Rushing
- 2022: 77 carries, 899 yards, 7 TDs, 7 fumbles
- 2023: 41 carries, 582 yards, 9 TDs, 3 fumbles
Strengths
The first thing that pops off the screen when watching Maye is his ability to effortlessly throw the ball downfield. He has a beautiful deep ball and is plenty capable of making throws from all angles. He throws across the field with ease and can deliver strong passes off his back foot when facing pressure.
According to PFF, Maye was second in all of the FBS in terms of big-time throws with 34, which are defined as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window”. Only Michael Penix had more of these big-time throws with 41.
Like Williams, Maye is plenty capable of eluding pressure in the pocket as well. He is a very athletic quarterback, and North Carolina utilized designed runs on a semi-regular basis, which allowed him to pick up chunk yards with his legs.
Weaknesses
The weaknesses of Maye are rather similar to Williams. He can get caught up in playing hero ball sometimes and takes too long to throw as he scrambles around in the backfield.
There are inconsistencies in his accuracy as well, which really popped up during the 2023 season. He doesn’t always hit receivers in stride, forcing them to slow their routes and catch passes off their back shoulder.
Finally, Maye had some struggles when he went up against the top defenses in college football. He had poor performances against both Clemson and NC State this year. Some of the decision-making wasn’t as sharp against the strong pass-rushes of these programs, and that will be worth keeping an eye on as he heads to the NFL level.
NFL Projection
- Draft Stock: First Overall-Top Five
- Immediate Role: QB1, Potential Pro Bowler
- Best-Case Scenario: Ben Roethlisberger
- Worst-Case Scenario: Mitch Trubisky
- Vikings Draft Thermometer (1-100): 10
There is certainly more of a boom-or-bust factor with Maye than there is with a prospect like Williams. Maye benefited from playing in a rather weak ACC conference over the past couple years, and we never saw him go up against the vaunted Florida State defense, which should see plenty of talent reach the NFL level in 2024 and 2025.
Still, from what we were able to see of Maye this season, he has displayed an ability to make many of the same throws that Williams made at USC. He can throw across his body with ease and has a size advantage on Williams, making him less of an injury risk when he runs the ball.
For the Vikings, it is still rather unlikely that they land him, considering both New England and Washington should be looking for a QB in this draft. However, if he were to make it past the third overall pick, Minnesota would be in great position to trade up.
Editor’s Note: All statistics for this piece were found via Sports Reference CFB and Pro Football Focus.
Is USC QB Caleb Williams Really Worth the Hype Heading into the 2024 NFL Draft?
Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho and managing editor of PurplePTSD.com. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys running, gaming, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.