Prediction Accountability: What I Got Right and Wrong Going into the 2023 Vikings Season
Football writing can be a perilous task.
The sport is inherently unpredictable — Kwesi reminds us that the sport is played with an oblong ball, meaning we can’t even say with certainty how the ball itself will bounce — and yet the job of the writer is often to make educated guesses and to offer bold takes.
So, before the year began, I offered up a piece for PurplePTSD doing precisely those things (in fact, the offseason kicked off with yet another round of predictions).
Back on June 18, 2023, I humbly submitted “5 Oddly Specific Statistical Vikings Predictions.” Therein, I made a guess about what would happen with five Vikings players. In the end, the record was three correct guesses, one miss, and another that’s incomplete.
The Predictions and The Reflections
1) Jordan Hicks Has at Least 34 Blitzes in 2023 = Correct
The main issue with this guess is that it was hilariously modest.
Coming off a year where the linebacker got sent on 17 blitzes in 17 games, Jordan Hicks got sent a whopping 89 times. Crucially, he did so while working in just 13 games since he had a trip to the IR to recover from his shin injury.
In other words, the veteran could have hit triple digits for his blitz total, meaning the guess that 17 would double to 34 or more was, while technically right, quite modest.
2) Kirk Cousins Gets Sacked 36 Times or Less = Incomplete
The strictest reading of the law would say this prediction is correct. The spirit of the law, though, points toward things being incomplete.
In a touch less than eight games, Cousins got sacked 17 times. Doubling both totals — eight games, 17 sacks — would put Mr. Cousins at sixteen games and 34 sacks. The 17th game, assuming the average held, would have determined whether the QB1 got suplexed (a technical football term) 36 times or less.
Sacks are a full team statistic, but most of the focus rests on the o-line and quarterback. The two positions work in harmony to limit the amount sacks by communicating effectively pre-snap and then playing things correctly post-snap (e.g. blocking well and being decisive with the throw).
The opening half of the season suggested that things were improving from 2022 when Cousins got sacked a career-high 46 times, but the projected 36 sacks or less is mysterious due to #8 missing more than half of the season following a non-contact injury.
3) Greg Joseph Exceeds 90% for his Extra Points = Correct
Credit where it’s due: the kicker has always been accountable for his mistakes. When he has missed, Greg Joseph has accepted blame and vowed to be better. Gotta admire that professionalism.
In 2023, Joseph was considerably better while kicking PATs.
In each of Week 6 and Week 7, Joseph missed a PAT. Otherwise, the man was flawless. He finished the year having gone 34/36 for a 94.7 PAT percentage. Not too bad, especially when we remember that his 2022 season resulted in missing a half dozen PATs and a discouraging 87% conversion rate.
4) Harrison Smith Has at Least 8 TFLs = Incorrect
And here is where things went pretty poorly, at least when it comes to my prediction prowess.
Under Ed Donatell, Harrison Smith had to play the deep area of the field far too often, picking up 519 snaps at free safety. Working with Brian Flores solved that issue. The Hitman was in the deep area of the field for 346 snaps, allowing him to jump up to 185 snaps along the defensive line and then 390 in the box. Plus, hit blitz total jumped from 9 in 2022 to 83 in 2023.
So, the playing time closer to the line of scrimmage arrived, but the bunches of tackles for a loss didn’t. He finished the season with just a pair, well short of the offseason prediction.
5) Josh Metellus Plays More Than 516 Snaps on Defense = Correct
Honestly, what took so long? The dude has been a baller for a little while, so seeing him used so sparingly in 2022 was as discouraging as it was befuddling.
Thankfully, Flores got brought to town and rectified the issue from Week 1 onward.
Mr. Metellus finished the season with a career-high 1,065 defensive snaps, easily crushing the 258 snaps he picked up last year. With the increased opportunity, Metellus snagged 116 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 10 QB hits, 7 tackles for a loss, 4 forced fumbles, 1 interception, 5 passes defended, and 1 fumble recovery.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and PFF helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.