5 Oddly Specific Statistical Vikings Predictions
K. Joudry
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Well, we’re officially into the slow portion of the offseason, so it’s time for some statistical Vikings talk.
For some fans, the chance to step away from the incessant NFL news updates will be refreshing. Get outside and away from a screen. Heck, actually pick up a physical football and throw it with a friend. Others, though, will crave more football content. Physical footballs can remain holstered as the offseason content gets unravelled.
After spending some time writing about the Vikings roster over these past several months, I began to notice stats that stood out for one reason or another. I’ve been keeping track, and below if a list of some weirdly specific statistical predictions for the 2023 Vikings.
The 5 Oddly Specific Statistical Vikings Predictions
1) Jordan Hicks Has at Least 34 Blitzes in 2023
A lot went wrong in last season’s Vikings defense. A lot. One of the issues is that Jordan Hicks only blitzed 17 times, a shockingly low number considering what he has done previously. In 2021, he blitzed 49 times. In 2020, he blitzed 89 times. For some reason, Hicks didn’t get the same luxury in Minnesota.
Possibly the main thing we’ve heard since Brian Flores took over is that the new defensive sheriff wants to be aggressive. The DC himself uses the word to describe his approach and all of the players parrot the same descriptor. As a result, I’m anticipating that Hicks will at least double last season’s oddly-low blitz total.
2) Kirk Cousins Gets Sacked 36 Times or Less
Kirk Cousins got hit far too often last season. He took 46 sacks, the most of his career. The only other times he has been above 40 sacks were back in 2017 and 2018. With Klint Kubiak in charge, Cousins only took 28 sacks, so there’s certainly room to improve in Minnesota’s offense. At 34, Cousins isn’t getting any younger. He has been durable but that shouldn’t be taken for granted. Keeping him upright and at full health must be a top priority.
Kevin O’Connell’s offense sometimes overloaded the QB with options as the clock ticked toward zero. Were things too complicated at times? One has to think that an extra year of mastering the system alongside a greater effort to keep things simple for the signal caller would help keep Cousins protected. Give the OL a chance to comprehend the play and its protection demands instead of constantly needing to rush. Doing so may lead to a cleaner Cousins.
3) Greg Joseph Exceeds 90% for his Extra Points
Missing an extra point is always deflating. During the 2022 season, Greg Joseph had a paltry 87.0 XP%. He hit 40 of his 46 attempts. Put simply, that’s not good enough. The bet with Joseph is less in his physical abilities (he does have an impressive leg) and more with what’s between his ears. He understands the pressure of his job and doesn’t shrink.
After missing the potentially game-winning kick against Arizona in his opening season in Minnesota, Joseph vowed not to let the error define him. True to his word, he battled back and had a strong season. His resilience is commendable. I’m banking on him surpassing a 90% extra-point percentage as he solidifies himself as the kicker solution in 2023 and beyond.
4) Harrison Smith Has at Least 8 TFLs
Generally speaking, TFLs get monopolized by players in the front seven. Defensive backs can join the fun but it can be more difficult for them to make a tackle behind the line of scrimmage given that they often line up far deeper on the field. Harrison Smith is going to get moved around a lot, though, so I’m expecting him to make some plays.
Back in 2018, Smith had 9 TFLs, an eye-popping number for someone who was so commonly roaming the deeper portion of the field. In a couple other instances he has been at 7 TFLs, such as his AP1 season in 2017. Hitting 8+ TFLs in 2023 would point to a rejuvenated Smith who is thriving under the tutelage of the new defensive mastermind.
5) Josh Metellus Plays More Than 516 Snaps on Defense
Since joining the Vikings in the 2020 NFL Draft – the same draft group as Justin Jefferson – safety Josh Metellus has been a special teams stud. After Brian O’Neill was lost to injury last season, Metellus was elevated to being one of the team’s captains to finish off the year, a signal of how much the coaching staff thinks of him. Very recently, the team’s GM named Metellus as a “core pillar.”
The 2022 season marked the most playing time he has ever had on defense. In total, Metellus had 258 snaps in Ed Donatell’s defense. More than doubling that amount would mean #44 is on the field for more than 516 snaps. Though a lot of attention is being given to The Hitman and Lewis Cine, Metellus is still someone who can carve out a weekly role on the backend of Minnesota’s defense.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
