A Basic Fact: The 3-Year Trend that Must Change for the Vikings in 2023
K. Joudry
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For the Vikings in 2023, failing to have a positive point differential will almost certainly lead to disappointment. A 13-win season would be out of reach, and the chance at getting back into the playoffs would be in peril.
Make no mistake: the Minnesota Vikings are a team in need of some major improvement in several critical areas. One of the particularly ghastly trends that survived the switch from Mike Zimmer to Kevin O’Connell is the team’s negative point differential. The young head coach will be looking to overcome the shortcoming as he pursues consecutive division titles.
The Change That’s Needed for the Vikings in 2023
Maybe too simple to even be worth mentioning, be here goes nothing: the team that scores the most points is the team that wins the football game. Every part of the sport supports that basic, fundamental goal. The offense seeks to pile up points, the defense seeks to stop the opposition from piling up points, and the special teams contribute to both objectives.
From 2020 onward, the Minnesota Vikings haven’t been doing a very good job of outscoring their opponents. Not a disastrous team, the Vikings have too often been below average, as their point differential suggests.
Take a look at the past trio of seasons:
- 2022: -3
- 2021: -1
- 2020: -45
Losing the point differential battle for an entire season is a poor reflection on the team in its entirety. Now, the defense should certainly shoulder most of the criticism since the team needs to travel back to 2019 to find a defense that’s actually competent. Since then, the Vikings have allowed 29.7 points against per game (29th), 25.1 points against per game (24th), and 25.1 points against per game (28th).
Meanwhile, the offense has been good. Not elite, but good. The 2020 season resulted in 26.9 PPG (11th), the 2021 season resulted in 25.0 PPG (14th), and the 2022 season resulted in 24.9 PPG (8th).
Getting 13 wins in a season where Minnesota actually scored less than its opponents is a minor miracle.
Kansas City came out on top in February, snagging the second Lombardi of Patrick Mahomes’ career. At the end of the regular season, the Chiefs had an impressive +127 point differential. The team they clashed with in the final game – the Philadelphia Eagles, the opponent in Week 2 – had a +133 point differential.
Kicking things back to the NFC and AFC Championship games can also be instructive. The Bengals finished their year with a +96 differential and the 49ers a +173 differential. Otherwise, only a pair of other teams – the Cowboys (+125) and Bills (+169) – soared past the century mark.
The suggestion from looking at the top teams is that the Vikings have a long way to go. Expecting Minnesota to overcome teams while continuing to live below the mendoza line is foolish.
The most obvious way of getting better results rests in fielding at least an average defense. Simply shaving off an average of two or three points per game would make things look considerably better, especially if there is a corresponding improvement on offense (even by just a point or two). In that scenario, Minnesota would clearly be in the positive rather than so far below par.
With training camp arriving on July 23rd, Vikings fans will gain some insight about what’s possible for O’Connell’s squad. The opening game occurs on September 10th when the Brady-less Buccaneers arrive.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
