The Vikings Hold Most of the Leverage in the T.J. Hockenson Negotiations
Well, things just got a bit more uncertain between the Vikings and star tight end T.J. Hockenson.
According to Dianna Russini of The Athletic, the “sides are far apart.” Take a peak at what the league insider had to say: “The Vikings and tight end T.J. Hockenson have been working on an extension, but both sides are far apart, per league sources. Hockenson wants to reset the market with a historic contract extension for tight ends.” Shortly thereafter, Russini points to the TE’s recent issues with his ear infection and back.
T.J. Hockenson and the Future in Minnesota
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is a businessman. Don’t forget that. He understands negotiations and who possesses leverage. Right now, the team has most of the power.
True, the divisional trade with the Lions means Minnesota does have at least some commitment to making the long-term relationship work with Hockenson. Nevertheless, the team likely feels content with the amount of control they already have.
The issue is one that PurplePTSD has considered previously.
Unless something gets adjusted, Hockenson will carry a cap charge a bit beyond $9.3 million in 2023. Presumably, the team would look to apply the franchise tag next year if the two sides can’t agree to an extension. That’s a critical detail.
The franchise tag gives the team a humongous amount of power. The Vikings could very easily have Hockenson for half of 2022 and then all of 2023-24 through the 5th-year option and tag. There’s risk in that approach but Hockenson’s only recourse is to hold out and/or request a trade, demands the team isn’t compelled to honor.
If he departs following the 2024 season, the Vikings would be in a good spot to earn a compensatory selection, helping to offset the cost of bringing him in.
Basically every stat suggests the tight end was a strong contributor in Minnesota’s offense. In just 10 games, Hockenson put together 60 catches, 519 yards, and 3 TDs. Toss those numbers onto the ones from Detroit and Minnesota’s TE1 finished his season with 86 catches, 914 yards, and 6 TDs. A perfect world would feature a few more scores but there’s not too much reason to be concerned about what he offers, so why the pause in a major extension?
Well, the issue may simply be that he wasn’t super explosive. He averaged a meager 8.7 yards per catch. In Detroit, Hockenson was up at 15.2. He’s very capable of doing damage down the field, but will he get the chance to do so with the Vikings?
A lot of tight ends can get to 8.7 yards per catch. In his final season in Minnesota, Tyler Conklin averaged 9.7 yards per catch. He then signed a 3-year, $20.25 million deal with the Jets. Conklin isn’t close to as good as Hockenson, but the point is simply that finding a TE who can pile up catches that average below 10 yards is relatively easy. The Vikings know this very well.
Moreover, adding Josh Oliver on a 3-year deal further protects the team, and so does the presence of Johnny Mundt (someone whom Kevin O’Connell really likes). Losing Hockenson would be a sizable step back but not disastrous in the same way that losing Justin Jefferson would.
T.J. Hockenson, one of the best tight ends in the NFL, deserves a large contract that reflects how he can be a featured part of a team’s offensive attack. Many of the early moments in Minnesota, however, point to a situation where Hockenson was used in a bit of a subdued manner, leading to questions about how high Kwesi should go with his deal.
The expectation should continue to be that the sides agree to a mutually beneficial resolution. Something around 3-4 years and $15M/year seems like a good fit all around, especially if a hefty portion of that money is guaranteed. Just know that Kwesi has shown that he’s willing to stick to his guns as he brings his team-building philosophy to fruition.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
