How High is Too High for TE1 T.J. Hockenson? The Reason for Some Pause with a Major Deal
K. Joudry
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T.J. Hockenson, a great player, is looking for an extension.
In recent weeks, we’ve seen NFL tight ends snag nice deals. For Evan Engram and the Jags, the end result was a 3-year deal coming in at $41.25 million. Meanwhile, the Bears and Cole Kmet came to agreement that keeps the TE in The Windy City for 4 years and $50 million. Inevitably, these deals will impact the negotiations between Hockenson and the Vikings.
Indeed, contracts are contextual. In negotiations, team executives and player agents go back and forth on a deal, bouncing around numbers that largely derive from what others at the same position are getting. If, for instance, Justin Jefferson is deemed the best player at receiver, then his contract could very reasonably surpass the $75 million in total guarantees given to Cooper Kupp, the $140 million in total money given to Davante Adams, and/or the $30 million in annual average given to Tyreek Hill.
Where does that leave us with Hockenson, though?
Well, there’s a pretty decent case that Minnesota’s TE1 is better than both Engram and Kmet. Very quickly, Hockenson established himself as a trusted target for Kirk Cousins, someone capable of functioning as a friendly face when the pocket was collapsing. Being able to take heat off of Jefferson was similarly important, especially as defenses increasingly loaded up slowing down #18.
At the very top of the NFL’s tight end contracts are Darren Waller, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, and Mark Andrews. In reality, Kelce should find himself perched above all others, but the top 5 doesn’t give us too many reasons to quibble.
What’s a touch more debatable is where T.J. Hockenson fits within that contract hierarchy. Does the former Lion deserve to rival the $40 million in total guarantees given to Kittle, the $75 million in total value that was also given to Kittle, and/or the $17 million in annual average given to Waller?
Right now, the Vikings are trying to answer those questions.
T.J. Hockenson and a New Contract
Trading with a division rival means a team is committing to a player for, at the very least, the intermediate.
For the second time in his still-young career as a GM, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did business with the Detroit Lions. He shipped a 2nd- and 3rd-round selection to Detroit in exchange for Hockenson and a pair of 4th rounders. A major part of the equation is that the Vikings were then committing to paying major money to the TE1 since he is entering Year 5 in the NFL, the portion of his rookie deal when he’s now getting paid like a top-tier player at his position.
Unless something gets adjusted, Hockenson will carry a cap charge a bit beyond $9.3 million in 2023. Presumably, the team would look to apply the franchise tag next year if the two sides can’t agree to an extension. Of course, the tag is a long time from now. Ideally, both sides reach an agreement long before the tag even becomes a serious reality.
When it comes to an extension, how high is too high for Hockenson?
Basically every stat suggests the tight end was a strong contributor in Minnesota’s 2022 offense. In just 10 games, Hockenson put together 60 catches, 519 yards, and 3 TDs. Toss those numbers onto the ones from Detroit and Minnesota’s TE1 finished his season with 86 catches, 914 yards, and 6 TDs. A perfect world would feature a few more scores but there’s not too much reason to be concerned about what he offers, so why the pause in a major extension?
Well, the issue is simply that he wasn’t super explosive for the Vikings. He averaged a meager 8.7 yards per catch. In Detroit, Hockenson was up at 15.2. He’s very capable of doing damage down the field (especially in the intermediate area); will he get the chance to do so with the Vikings?
A lot of tight ends can get to 8.7 yards per catch. In his final season in Minnesota, Tyler Conklin averaged 9.7 yards per catch. He then signed a 3-year, $20.25 million deal with the Jets. No one should be arguing that Conklin is as good as Hockenson, but the point is simply that finding a TE who can pile up catches that average below 10 yards is relatively easy.
Minnesota’s struggles in pass protection made Hockenson a needed security blanket for Cousins. In theory, taking steps along the OL will mean the TE can get down the field with greater regularity, allowing him to boost that YPC average. Does the Kevin O’Connell offense ask its tight ends to get down the field, though?
Maybe that’s the primary question to be asking. Will the offense adjust how it uses Hockenson? So many passes in the short area of the field seem to undermine the need for a dynamic tight end, especially if that tight end isn’t putting up humongous TD numbers.
For whatever it’s worth, Hockenson was among the Vikings’ best players in their lonely playoff game last season. He finished his day with 10 catches (11 targets) for 129 yards while converting on 6 first downs. The TE had catches go for 27 yards, 28 yards, 19 yards, and 18 yards. The talent and ability is there for him to be more explosive, as evidenced by his 12.9 YPC average in the Giants playoff game.
T.J. Hockenson, one of the best tight ends in the NFL, deserves a large contract that reflects how he can be a featured part of a team’s offensive attack. Many of the early moments in Minnesota, however, point to a situation where Hockenson was used in a bit of a subdued manner, leading to questions about how high Kwesi should go with his deal.
Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw — homegrown talents playing premium positions — stand out as players who are near locks to cash-in on major extensions. How much will be left for Hockenson?
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
