Does a Packers Receiver Have a Higher Ceiling than Justin Jefferson? A Dialogue w/ the GB Writer who Thinks So
Admittedly, I have some bias. Spending several years writing about the Vikings has certainly cooled what was once rabid fandom, but the bias is still present: I see the world through purple glasses. Can we really say that a Packers receiver has a higher ceiling than Justin Jefferson, though?
We’re talking about the Offensive Player of the Year and the 5th-place finisher for the NFL MVP award (which has essentially become an award for QBs). Last year, Jefferson surpassed Cris Carter’s franchise record for most receptions in a season and Randy Moss’ record for most yards in a season. Both of those receivers are now in the Hall of Fame. Make no mistake: Jefferson is on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
For a variety of reasons, I think it’s fair to say that Bruce Irons – who is on Twitter – missed the mark on his now (in)famous tweet. On June 20th, Irons sent along a short, declarative statement: “Christian Watson has a higher ceiling than Justin Jefferson.” Currently, the tweet has been seen an eye-popping 2.7 million times.
Clearly, Irons set off a bit of a frenzy as some applauded his position while others voiced their disagreement.
Convincing Vikings fans that Justin Jefferson is an excellent player won’t be a difficult task. Irons agrees that Minnesota’s WR1 is a tremendous talent. The point of disagreement rests in who can soar higher: Watson or Jefferson.
I reached out to Irons this week, seeking clarity on an opinion that I believe is wrong. Engaging in a public debate on Twitter is a terrible idea since the platform doesn’t allow for making sophisticated, rigorous arguments. Instead, I sent along a series of messages containing questions that he very graciously chose to answer, providing insight along the way to help build up his case.
The Vikings’ WR1, The Packers Receiver, and The Ceiling Debate
Right off the top, let’s get to the crux of Irons’ argument: Christian Watson has a higher ceiling because he has demonstrably better athleticism than Justin Jefferson. Irons makes this claim in a follow-up tweet to his original one:
To be sure, Watson is an insanely gifted athlete. The 6’5″ receiver ran a blistering 4.36 forty. Partnering that kind of speed and height is a dangerous combination. He has the wheels to get behind a corner and even when he’s covered he’s capable of elevating above the vast majority of defenders. So, to be sure, there is plenty of upside in Watson’s game.
During his rookie season, the young receiver put up 41 catches, 611 yards, and 7 TDs (with a pair of rushing TDs). Not earth-shattering numbers but promising nonetheless. In Irons’ mind, there is room for significantly better play and production.
After reaching out, the first thing I wanted to know was about his reaction to how the tweet took off:
I’m really surprised at the response for a couple reasons. First, it was just a throwaway tweet. I was looking at what happened least year to think about the upcoming season and Christian Watson’s potential just jumped out. I was really high on him during the pre-draft process and loved what I saw in his limited action. I felt like he had the potential to be as good as anyone. Justin Jefferson was just the first name that came to mind when I sent the tweet. I was also surprised at the response because a player’s ceiling is so impossible to define and really is in the eye of the beholder.
I asked about whether he’s ever had a tweet gain so much steam. He pointed to previous predictions – one right, one wrong – that garnered significant attention. He accurately predicted the Packers would move on from Davante Adams but was wrong in his belief that the team would split with Aaron Jones.
I then did my best to ensure I was understanding his argument correctly before asking if he’d say that Watson also has a higher ceiling than Adams, the only receiver who (in my opinion) can approach Jefferson’s level right now:
Justin Jefferson is definitely the better receiver now. I wouldnt ague if you called him the best receiver in the league. My whole point is, based on his athleticism and the flashes Watson showed as a rookie, I think he can be as good (or even better) than any receiver in the league. That includes Jefferson, Adams, or anyone else playing today.
I’m not saying he ever will realize his potential, but based on my pre-daft work and what I saw out of him as a rookie, there’s nothing I don’t think he’s incapable of.
There’s an important distinction in there. Currently, who is better? Jefferson, no question. Most Vikings fans and NFL analysts more broadly would insist he has the higher ceiling but that’s where Irons disagrees. He sees more potential in the Packers receiver.
Not entirely persuaded, I hit him with a follow-up question: “How would you respond to the criticism that you’re putting too much into athleticism? Put differently, Watson may test better athletically than Jerry Rice, but that doesn’t mean his ceiling is higher than Rice’s, does it? Should there be more consideration for factors like precise route running, the quality of someone’s hands, timing a jump for a contested catch, knowing when to sit down in zone coverage, bringing complete effort on a weekly basis, spending time studying film, and various other factors?”
And his response:
I don’t feel like I’m putting too much emphasis on athleticism, I feel like my critics think I’m putting too much emphasis on athleticism.
Guys like Jeff Janis and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have all-world athletic measurables, too. I don’t think they have more potential than Jerry Rice, though. They never consistently showed the things on the field that Christian Watson flashed.
Things like film study, splitting zones, and contested jump timing absolutely play a big role in potential and player success. There’s no good way to quantify any of these things, so we have to watch the games and look for these things.
It’s a small sample size, but I really like what I saw out of Christian Watson. On some of his big plays, he didn’t just use pure speed. He scanned the field, mentally processed defenders positions, and chose a running path. Instantaneously. That kind of natural field vision is innate – it can’t be taught – and Watson has it. Guys like John Ross and Darrius Heyward-Bey weren’t able to process the field like that. Tyreek Hill can and Christian Watson can – that’s what makes their speed so much more valuable.
This is also where measurable and non-measurable traits come together. Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams may have better field processing vision than Watson or even Hill, but speed will be a limitation of how much they can take advantage of it compared to the elite speed guys.All of that goes into how I view Christian Watson’s potential. It’s a lot easier to compare RAS scores in a tweet, but the innate stuff and the immeasurable stuff, which is all personal judgement and takes a lot longer to explain (hence my follow up article), is there in my eyes. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe that small sample size won’t hold up when it’s extrapolated. He could flame out of the league and get benched. But I think he has the potential to be great.
Irons, to his credit, isn’t shrinking things down to just height and speed even as those things do make up a significant portion of his argument. If I’m understanding his position correctly, he sees a player capable of translating those attributes into on-field success. He believes that’s the case since that’s what he has gleaned from watching Watson leading up to the 2022 NFL Draft and then last season playing for Green Bay.
And, he hastened to add, stats don’t tell the story:
One other thing from my perspective: I don’t think stats are always indicative of how good a player is. For example, Randy Moss never led the league in catches or yards. I don’t think this means he was never the best receiver in the league.
For the most part, Vikings fans and analysts will remain unpersuaded by his argument, but hopefully the discussion does shed further light on his take. And, to be sure, I don’t find his assessment to be accurate. After a trio of seasons, Jefferson has soared to statistical heights that no other receiver in NFL history has flown toward. I agree that stats don’t tell the whole story, but they do tell us an awful lot.
Until Watson puts together several seasons of elite play, I won’t believe he’s capable of coming close to #18. And, for the record, I’m of the belief that Jefferson still has much more room to grow. A scary thought for opposing defensive coordinators, Jefferson is still getting better. Plus, we should remember that Watson is actually older than Jefferson (by a matter of days, but still).
Nevertheless, dialoguing with someone who has a very different opinion was productive. I’ll certainly be keeping a closer eye on Watson the next time the team’s play each other even as the main focus will be on the Jaire Alexander matchup.
The Vikings play the Packers in Week 8 and Week 17. Were it not for a trade in the draft, the Packers may not have landed Watson. In some ways, then, the Packers’ young receiver will always have an odd connection to Minnesota.
Editor’s Note: PurplePTSD sends along a sincere thanks to Bruce Irons for being willing to discuss his argument. The entirety of his answers aren’t included in this piece, but an effort has been made to be faithful to his argument. Readers can find him on Twitter @BruceIronsNFL.
