For the Vikings, the Next 5 Weeks Will Be Huge
Just six days ago, the 2-4 Vikings were preparing for a momentous challenge, taking on the fashionable pick for the NFC’s representative at Super Bowl LVIII: the San Francisco 49ers.
San Francisco was, of course, the prohibitive favorite over Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Vikes’ top rival in 2023, the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions, were 3-point underdogs against the Ravens, but the Lions were rolling at 5-1 and seemingly poised to pull off a mild upset at Baltimore.
The scenario staring the Vikings in the face was a possible 2-5 start to the 2023 campaign, with the Lions atop the division at 6-1 — a nearly insurmountable lead. Many of us were ready to give the Vikings up for dead.
Then they took the time to actually play the games. The Vikings pulled off an inspiring upset, topping San Fran 22-17. Aterwards, things looked significantly different and significantly rosier. There was hope in Minnesota, and just a little extra perspiration on the brows of Lions fans everywhere.
The Vikings, of course, played their most focused, driven, and successful football of the season. Kirk Cousins, playing behind a suddenly impressive offensive line that yielded exactly zero sacks, threw for nearly 400 yards.
The defense played aggressively and courageously, holding their opponent to 20 points or fewer for the fourth consecutive week while winning the turnover battle 3-1. For the first time, our heroes in purple played like playoff contenders. Meanwhile, the Lions were absolutely destroyed by Baltimore, 38-6, looking about as submissive as my dog does when she rolls over in supplication, hoping for a good belly rub.
Seven games into a football season, 3-4 might not be ideal, but it feels way, way better than 2-5. With just a two-game gap between the Vikings and the Lions, and both head-to-head meetings to be held at season’s end in December and January, it’s much less difficult to imagine going on a roll that could put the playoffs back on the radar.
Five Games That Will Make or Break the Vikings in 2023
The next five games prior to Minnesota’s Week 13 bye will feature the Packers this weekend, followed by Atlanta, New Orleans, Denver and Chicago. All five of those games are very, very winnable; how the Vikings perform through November will tell us a lot. Minnesota, despite being on the road for three of the five games are currently favored in all but one, with only the Falcons being favored, by a slim single point according to the latest Vegas odds.
If ever there’s a time in this disappointing season for the Vikings (and their fans) to dare to dream, it’s now. Find a way to run the table on these five games, get Justin Jefferson healthy, and then regroup at the bye, we could be looking at an 8-4 record. Concede the one game that we’re underdogs, and roll up our sleeves and win each of the others, that puts us at 7-5. Those are playoff-worthy records—which wouldn’t be bad for a club that started 0-3.
But if stealing the division title from the Lions is the goal, falling short of one of those two options really isn’t an option. Why? Because Detroit’s schedule during that same time period looks even more juicy than ours does. The Lions, like the Vikings, will be an underdog only once through November, when they come out of their week 9 bye on the road as 1.5-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers.
They’ll be prohibitive favorites in each of their home games during that time, hosting Las Vegas and Chicago (7.5-point favorites in each game) and Green Bay (favored by 5.5). They’ll also be favored on the road versus New Orleans on December 3rd while Minnesota enjoys their bye.
In short, the Vikings better plan on winning these upcoming winnable games, because it’s a good bet the Lions will be winning theirs. Viking fans will be hoping that 38-6 thrashing at the hands of the Ravens was no fluke, and that a good run by the Vikings will coincide with a series of additional disappointments for the Motor City, allowing us to pass them on the third turn. I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Instead, I see both teams putting the pedal to the metal, and Detroit’s lead will hold into December—they’re a talented club that has demonstrated through their 5-2 start that they are very capable of going on runs, and it will simply be wishful thinking to expect them to fade like sheep in Lions’ clothing. But if the Vikings can’t gain ground on Detroit during November, it is certainly feasible that they can draft off of the leaders and stay within two in the standings.
And Then 4 More That Will Make or Break the Vikings in 2023
All of which sets up a very fascinating December. If you like big games with huge playoff implications, keep your eyes on the four weeks from December 17th through the end of the season. No week will be more difficult for Minnesota to maintain their position than on the 17th. Detroit will be hosting the hapless Broncos while the Vikings will be on the road against a very good Cincinnati Bengals squad. It’s likely to be a must-win game for both clubs.
And then, the stakes would grow higher. After the Bengal hurdle we’ll be treated to a home-and-home series that will settle the matter entirely, with the Lions visiting Minnesota on Christmas Eve, and the Vikings heading to Detroit two weeks later (January 7th) for the final game of the season. Sandwiched in between, the Vikings will host Green Bay (likely with nothing to play for but a higher draft pick) while Detroit will have a challenge on the road against a good Dallas team.
It’s very conceivable that the Vikings could be sitting as far as three games back with three weeks to go, but still have a legitimate chance to perform the miracle that would be required of them to win the North. That is, if you believe the Vikings can sweep the Lions and avoid a letdown against the rival Packers. Let’s just say that the Vikings would truly be earning their title if they can do all of that.
We can talk all we want about soft schedules and possible pre-bye runs and December dream scenarios, but just like with 49ers-Vikings, they’ll need to actually play the games. One thing we can plan on: everything will not play out exactly like the oddsmakers say they will.
There will be upsets, there will be surprises and disappointments, and somebody’s going to win the NFC North Division. And in the end, maybe it won’t matter all that much whether it’s Minnesota or Detroit. If these two teams can play strong football against weaker opponents, they may both make the playoffs. That’s where the team who makes the best run wins a Lombardi Trophy.
And this is how it’s still early in the season: with ten games yet to be played, even a 3-4 team and their long-suffering fans can still dream about winning it all. What a difference a week makes, indeed.
