On The Significance of a Week 11 Loss Against the Packers
K. Joudry
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Earlier in the day, I spent some time discussing the significance of a win against our green and yellow rivals. A Week 11 loss would put Minnesota in the unenviable position of needing to rely on other teams to get into the playoffs. Can the Vikings afford a loss to the Packers? Would their playoff path shrink into a playoff tightrope?
A Difficult Road Following A Vikings Loss
Earlier, Dustin Baker covered the win/loss scenarios on Vikings Territory. Here is what Dustin found:
The aforementioned 40% for Minnesota’s postseason probability dips to 25% for a week with a loss to the Packers. Not great, right? But if the Vikings go on the road and beat the 49ers, the odds climb back to 49%. After that, a win in Detroit — they better beat the Lions — brings the purple team to a 59% playoff participation probability.
He further explains:
Here’s a reasonable rule of thumb to remember if dealings for the Vikings begin to go pear-shaped against Green Bay in Week 11. If Minnesota loses to its archrival on Sunday, then Mike Zimmer’s team must topple the San Francisco 49ers on the Sunday after Thanksgiving and the Detroit Lions in Week 13.
I don’t like the idea of losing to those Packers in Week 11, but it’s at least somewhat plausible that the team stumbles into the playoffs after dropping to 4-6. Of course, all kinds of fans will (very reasonably) tell you that squeaking in at 9-8 and then getting demolished in the opening round is no reason for celebration. If that happens, the calls for new leadership will be difficult to corral.
A win, quite evidently, is the outcome that is way more appealing. Be that as it may, the Packers are going to be a difficult team to beat. Matt LaFleur did discuss the challenge of getting his QB and receivers on track due to all the missed time recently: “We need those guys to continue to work on the timing portion, making sure that the details of our route depths and our assignments are on point because, I think right now if you just look at as a whole, there is opportunity out there for us.” Nevertheless, I’m thinking Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams will likely feast. It remains to be seen if the Vikes can weather that storm.
The Packers didn’t look particularly formidable against the Seahawks last Sunday, at least not when it comes to their offense. Even still, Vikings fans have seen enough to know that a Packers loss remains a distinct possibility. No lead is safe with the guys in purple. If Minnesota can lose to Cooper Rush, it can lose to Rodgers.
Closing Argument
A loss would mean the Vikes are down to a rough 4-6 record. The playoffs wouldn’t be totally out of reach, but the path forward would be a fair bit more difficult.
At the end of the day, it’s at least some comfort that the Vikings really do control their own playoff destiny (as least for now). If they keep winning, they’ll make it in. Another defeat or two would mean that Minnesota is now relying on other teams to struggle in order to find their way into the playoffs.
With more than half of their games played, Minnesota still has five games to play against division rivals. They tried to give away the Lions game, but the Lions are who we thought they were. Minnesota could therefore steal a win from those Knee Biters. The Vikes will soon face the Lions once again, a game that ought to be a win. Four games against the Packers and Bears, though, present far more reason for concern. Putting together a losing record against divisional rivals simply won’t be good enough.
Put simply, the Vikings better hope they can get the win this week.
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