War of Attrition: Who has the pieces to survive the NFC North?

Noseonarug17   |  

Oct 17, 2017

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Disclaimer: I haven’t written this type of article before, and nothing like an article to in about 2 years, so bear with me when it comes to lack of focus, organization, or whatever. I kind of got off on a tangent with the entire article and forgot what my original intention was, so we’ll see how this comes out.

Disclaimer 2: I have not watched every NFL game this season, nor have I seen every NFC North game (though I have seen a lot). Therefore, my knowledge is not encyclopedic and my perceptions may be somewhat malformed.

Every year, the pundits, the superfans, and the self-important bloggers think they have a good handle on each teams’ capabilities come week 1. Then, almost immediately, all those preconceived notions are trashed, and any left standing are demolished in the next month or so. It seems we usually get to at least midseason before we have a good idea of who’s who, and this year, it’s looking even worse. The Jets aren’t tanking, at least like we thought they were. The Browns haven’t improved, or not as much as we thought. Goff doesn’t suck (well, I could have told you that). The Jaguars are worth watching. The Giants aren’t. The Patriots are 4-2, but barely. And as I write this, the Chiefs, who were clearly the best team in football in the first five weeks, are about to lose at home to an inconsistent Steelers team. Only three teams have less than two wins. At least on paper, there’s a lot of parity this year.

And yet, among all the improbable upsets, unpredictable performances, and unexpected regressions, the NFC North is – on paper – pretty predictable. In August, nobody would be too surprised if you told them that after week 6, Minnesota and Green Bay were 4-2, Detroit was 3-3, and Chicago was 2-4. In fact, Chicago would probably be the biggest surprise. But how each team got where they are now – and more importantly, where they’re going – are another story.

Sidebar: my wife says I had better be writing about how much I love her and how amazing she is for letting me watch football all the time and how I think about football 24/7 instead of her. Then she put a rabbit on me.

Key: Win – Probable win – Possible win

Chicago Bears

The Past

1 ATL L 23-17
2 @TB L 29-7
3 PIT W 23-17 OT
4 @GB L 35-14
5 MIN L 20-17
6 @BAL W 27-24 OT

Da Bears have pretty much been the punching bag of the NFC North since 2014, and nobody expected that to change. So it was a surprise when they were just a stone’s Glennon’s throw away from upsetting the Falcons in Week 1. In Week 2, the Bears got trounced, and all seemed right with the world…until they beat the Steelers in overtime. And then beat themselves the following week, leading to the $16 million dollar man being benched in favor of the rookie, thrown into the fire of a primetime home game against a divisional rival in what was a surprisingly narrow defeat. In Week 6, Trubisky got his first win, though the credit lies with the run game. Still, that’s not to say he’s not an improvement: Trubisky’s Bears have a point differential of 0. Glennon’s had a point differential of -43.

The Future

I think the Bears will win at least 3 more games – home vs. the Packers, 49ers, and Browns, with a decent chance of winning their home matchup against the Lions as well. Whether they win more, I think, depends on two things. First, Trubisky needs to continue to develop. Despite a poor statline – 20/41, 241 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT over two games – he passes the eye test, but he’ll need to improve if he’s going to start winning games for Chicago instead of just not losing them. Second, the rest of the team needs to play consistently. Every drive a different team takes the field. Part of this falls on the youth and inexperience, but I think a lot of it falls to the coaching as well. Therefore, the Bears are still probably least likely to win the division, but they may come out of the season looking much better than expected, and I think Fox is more likely to keep his job than not. NFC North Title Chance: 5%

Detroit Lions

The Past

1 ARI W 35-23
2 @NYG W 24-10
3 ATL L 30-26
4 @MIN W 14-7
5 CAR L 27-24
6 @NO L 38-52

The Pretty Kitties started out strong in with two-score victories over the Cardinals and Giants, then suffered a tough loss against the defending NFC champs after their comeback attempt was stifled by refball. It’s been downhill from there, really. Despite a win in Minnesota, they didn’t look good. Detroit hosted the Panthers and only made it look close with 4th quarter points, and then went to New Orleans to play an ugly game: 5 turnovers – 3 for TDs – 31 first half points allowed, and laid a duck on offense until halfway through the 3rd quarter. It was 45-10 at one point. Granted, that combination of poor play and bad luck is probably unsustainable, but their attempted comeback included a punt return TD and a one-yard pick six, which is also unsustainable. I’ve been saying it since Week 3, and it’s only become clearer: the Lions in their current state are a pretender, not a contender. Their two impressive wins came against teams that have not exactly been proven to be staunch opponents; Arizona has the 4th-worst point differential in the league at -39, and the Giants are 1-5.

The Future

Despite my relative skepticism over the Lions, I think they can still win a lot of games this year. In fact, I guess I don’t have any game pegged as a for sure loss. I suppose I should add that I’m predicting with the assumption that they smooth out their issues and don’t put out more train wrecks like they did in New Orleans. The Pittsburgh game is a coin flip – the Steelers can be really good or pretty lame, which sounds just like how I described the Lions a minute ago. Both Packers games should be relatively easy wins, and even if Rodgers is back in week 17 (I doubt it, but I’ll go over that later) I still give them the edge at home. They should win their home game against Chicago. The rest (11-14, 16) depend on which version of their opponent they get (and which version of themselves they put out there) and are all away games aside from the Minnesota game. I haven’t watched enough to feel like I can diagnose the exact issue, but the Lions have plenty of talent and are pretty healthy, aside from some OL injuries that appear to be short-term. If they get back on track, 10-11 wins definitely is doable, which would likely get them a playoff spot and a shot at the division. NFC North Title Chance: 40%

Green Bay Packers

The Past

1 SEA W 17-9
2 @ATL L 34-23
3 CIN W 27-24 OT
4 CHI W 35-14
5 @DAL W 35-31
6 @MIN L 23-10

Green Bay started out the season with a non-standard Packers game: a defensive slugfest. Not because they were elite on defense, but because they played a horrible offense and an elite defense. Then they got blown out in Atlanta, needed overtime to beat a reeling Bengals team at Lambeau, and were gifted a game by the Bears in their only multi-score game. In Week 5, they came back to beat the Cowboys, mainly thanks to a dropped pass turned pick six – otherwise Aaron Rodgers wouldn’t have been looking at a one-score game the next time he touched the ball. [warning: tangent incoming] While Rodgers is no doubt clutch, I think the reason that ability is showcased so often is linked to why he’s won just one NFCCG in 8 playoff berths, gone 9-7 in the playoffs, and is 5-5 in non-WC round playoff games. In short, the defense puts them in a position to lose, and Rodgers has to make it happen, time and time again. And he does. But then they reach the playoffs, and eventually, they face an offense that can put up enough points and fall too far behind. In Rodgers’ six playoff losses since his Super Bowl in 2010, the Packers lost by three scores twice and by two scores another time. They also lost two overtime games in which the defense allowed the winning touchdown on the opening OT drive. Of course, this is generally how the Packers lose regular season games as well, but it’s a tad more pungent in the postseason. But as long as they keep winning regular season games, they’ll still be considered a powerhouse, even if they don’t actually have what it takes to endure the playoffs. [end tangent] Anyway, before I had a chance to put my theory forward, Rodgers went down for the season at Minnesota, and the rest of the team almost literally crumbled around him.

The Future

As far as winning games, the Packers are probably in an even worse position than the Bears, although their record may not be as bad since they’ve got an extra two games in hand. Their already subpar defense is incredibly injured, their offensive line is injured, and while I don’t think Hundley is bad, he’s not going to be able to sustain Green Bay’s game plan, which, as previously stated, is “play just well enough that Rodgers can come back in the 4th quarter.” They’ll get two home games split with the bye, which is a nice welcome for Hundley, but I don’t think either is a win (though I can’t say I’d be surprised). The Bears game will be a tossup and depend on which of these discombobulated teams can form an offense around a young QB faster – Chicago has a head start but worse players. I can’t tell if the Ravens are good or if they suck, but if they can lose to Trubisky at home, I’m not counting the Packers out at Lambeau. The same goes for the Bucs. As for the Browns, they may be bad, but with another 8 weeks ahead I’m not going to just give them an L automatically. Now, Week 15 is where it starts to get interesting. If Rodgers heals quickly, my rudimentary guesswork says Week 15 or 16 is about where he’d be able to come back. But like I said before, I don’t think he will, and here’s why. To make the playoffs, they’ll presumably need 10-11 wins to win the division or get a wild card. That means they need another 3-4 wins by Week 15 (or 4-5 by week 16) without Rodgers, and then they basically need to win out @CAR, vs MIN, @DET. Even assuming he’s healthy, those are pretty bad odds. Barring miraculous play from Hundley or an early return from Rodgers, Green Bay will be lucky to go 7-9, and their best shot at the division is the Vikings and Lions crumbling like they did last time Rodgers broke his collarbone. NFC North Title Chance: 5%

Minnesota Vikings

The Past

1 NO W 29-19
2 @PIT 26-9
3 TB W 34-17
4 DET L 14-7
5 @CHI W 20-17
6 GB W 23-10

Ah, yes, the one you truly care about, and the one I’m least likely to be objective on. I’ll do my best. For the second straight year, the Vikings look completely different than they did after week 4 of preseason, and it’s almost soul-crushing…only this year, we may actually be in better shape. With an actual offensive line, Sam Bradford and the Vikings looked great in the opener, but since Bradford’s knee issues cropped up, they’ve been inconsistent on offense thanks to the limitations of starting a backup and the addition of Dalvin Cook’s injury. Nevertheless, Minnesota has gone 3-2 with Case Keenum and leads the NFC North, and is certainly playing well enough to keep Minnesota in the running long enough for Tedsam Bridgeford to take the reins and finish the playoff race. Despite my anguish over the ugliness of today’s game, I think we played well enough to win even if Rodgers hadn’t been hurt – the defense played great and the offense scored 23 points (despite turtling half the game), which would have been enough in 2 of our last 3 games against Green Bay.

The Future

Before I start, I should state my QB speculation, which of course has a lot to do with season predictions. It seems to me that Bradford, whenever he’s ready, will not beat Teddy back. Teddy has been cleared to practice as of this and will probably be activated this week, but unless Keenum takes a nosedive, Teddy won’t start until Week 10 (assuming his play is on track). This seems like a pretty ideal situation, as Week 7 is probably too quick and Week 8 is in London. Plus, both are games we should be able to win. Okay, back to business. Again, I swear I’m trying to be objective, but with the exception of weeks 12-14, I think we have a pretty favorable remaining schedule. The Ravens started strong but have been the opposite since, and while they may get back on track, I don’t think this is it. The Browns in London seems a bit like a trap game, but they’re pretty bad right now. I think the Redskins game is our next big test, and it may also be the next time we see Teddy. They’ve been a bit up and down but definitely a threat, so it could go either way. I think the Rams are pretty good, and maybe I’m wrong to call this a probable win, but they’ve only played one proven defense. Weeks 12-14 are the toughest stretch, with 3 away games against potential playoff teams. All three are certainly fallible, and Zimmer’s Vikings are 2-0 against each ATL and CAR. 2 wins here would be great, but I’d be happy with just one, especially if it’s in Detroit. I originally had the Bengals down as a probable win, but they’re too much of a mystery to guess thus far, and they could turn out to be really good. Finally, I think we take the last two divisional games – as I said before, I don’t think Rodgers will return, and I don’t think the Bears beat us at home. NFC North Title Chance: 50%