Vikings Fans Ought to Monitor The Deebo Samuel Negotiation
K. Joudry
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We can be reasonably confident that Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen will play alongside each other for two more years. In all likelihood, Minnesota will then look to move on from Thielen. The reasons will probably be due to his age and the team’s inability to afford two costly receivers. It won’t be long before Jefferson gets a massive new deal, so the impending Deebo Samuel contract is certainly something to follow.
Brad Spielberger from PFF suggests that Samuel will demand a four-year, $100 million deal. The guess is that it’ll come with $57.5 in guaranteed money:
Samuel was a major reason the 49ers reached Super Bowl LIV in his rookie campaign, leading the team in pretty much every receiving category while his 2.04 yards per route run was a top-15 mark among wide receivers. Samuel may have been even more important for the 49ers this past postseason, as his 87.6 receiving grade ranked third among all receivers, while his 77.4 rushing grade ranked second.
Samuel’s unique “wide back” role earned him 88 carries in 2021 and is something that will impact negotiations and his financial future. Agent Tory Dandy negotiated the same contracts (three years, $60 million) for clients Mike Williams and Chris Godwin.
Some Vikings fans were upset to see Deebo Samuel edge Jefferson in the All Pro voting in 2021. While I understand that frustration, it’s noteworthy that many of the league’s preeminent evaluators see the two as being neck-and-neck. Both are young receivers who have already ascended into the NFL’s elite. Both are going to get massive raises.
In some ways, we may look at the Samuel deal as a starting point for Jefferson. If things proceed as we expect – which is never a certainty in this uncertain world – the NFL salary cap will continue rising. Players who play the most valuable positions will thus be able to keep demanding more and more money. In other words, Deebo Samuel getting $25 million in 2022 is different than Jefferson getting $25 million in 2024. So, there’s an argument to be made that the Samuel numbers are more of a floor than a ceiling.
Currently, the top of the receiver market is $30 million per year (on average). Samuel will likely find himself somewhere in the mid-to-high 20s in terms of per-year average. Jefferson may then use the Samuel deal as a starting point for his own negotiations, making the Samuel/SF contract an interesting offseason storyline for Vikings fans.
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