Three Things That Need to Change for the Minnesota Vikings in 2022
Josh Frey
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The 2021 season was largely a wash for the Minnesota Vikings. So many close losses, and some of the absolute worst luck we’ve ever seen in NFL history let a team that, in most seasons, should’ve been a playoff team, finish the year below .500 at 8-9. While there seemed to be some sort of voodoo placed over the team that caused them to make mistakes at the absolute worst moments, the curse of Minnesota sports was not the only reason that the Vikings struggled last year. There are numerous things that need to improve under the new regime in 2022 if this purple team hopes to be competitive. Here are three of them.
Forcing Turnovers
We’re going to start things off with one that might be a little surprising. The 2021 Minnesota Vikings did a pretty good job at forcing turnovers, especially during a middle stretch of the season from Week 5 to Week 16 where their opponents turned the ball over in 10 of 11 games. Their 24 takeaways ranked 13th in the league; nothing to stick your nose up at.
Their takeaway ranking needs to continue to trend upwards in 2022, though. 24 is fine, but it ranked 13th among all NFL teams. The threshold I am looking at for the Vikings to reach is top 10 this year. From 2019-2021, 23 of the 30 teams that have attained this ranking have made the playoffs. The Vikings were one of them in 2019 when they beat the Saints in New Orleans before running into the buzzsaw that was the 49ers.
Essentially, over the past three years if a team has ranked among the top 10 in takeaways, they have had about a 76.7% chance of making the playoffs. That’s a pretty good starting benchmark to start with. The 2021 Vikings were good at forcing turnovers; the 2022 Vikings need to be great at it.
Third Down
After a surprising entry, it’s time to talk about the one that everyone saw coming. The Minnesota Vikings had an absolutely abysmal third down offense in 2021. I suspect that there are some hidden factors behind this, and we’ll discuss those in depth soon. That said, converting just 36.4% of your third downs, a pace that was essentially on par with the New York Jets, is absolutely pathetic.
This conversion rate placed the Vikings 26th in the NFL, far off the median pace set by the Houston Texans of 39.8%. The Vikings also had some struggles in this area during the 2020 season, converting at a rate of 40% in their 7-9 effort. We can once again turn to the 2019 campaign for the last time the Vikings ranked among the top 10 in this category. Their 42.8% in that year ranked 9th in the league.
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Early Down Aggression
The Minnesota Vikings have put together an absolutely arsenal of weapons in their passing game. It appears that Kevin O’Connell may put an emphasis towards creating another target for Kirk Cousins in Dalvin Cook as well. That said, it is a travesty that the Vikings have not put pressure on opposing defenses by using the likes of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen on early downs.
One of the biggest problems with the Minnesota Vikings offense in 2021 was their continuous drives that ended with three-and-outs. This could be used as fuel to criticize Kirk Cousins, but I would point to a different culprit. The Minnesota Vikings were always a “run-first” offense under Mike Zimmer, no matter what the offense looked like. That was no different in 2021 as the Vikings ranked 14th in first down pass plays at 60.8%. Their 2020 rate was even lower, sitting at 55.4%.
Given the embarrassment of riches that Minnesota has to benefit from in the passing game, it makes very little sense why they weren’t used more often early in drives. So many times, the Vikings would force runs up the middle, and they’d land in 3rd-and-long situations. If Kevin O’Connell can solve this last wrinkle to the Vikings offense, they should be able to hold on to much more of their leads in 2022.
