The NFC Playoff Race Somehow Got a Little Tighter on Sunday
Josh Frey
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After the Vikings season felt over following their loss to the Detroit Lions in week 13, they find themselves back in the thick of a heated playoff race. Of course, Minnesota barely held on to a 36-28 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night, but they also got a little bit of help from a few teams to get them closer to the No. 7 seed of the NFC playoffs race.
The Washington Football Team made a valiant effort to come back against the Dallas Cowboys, but it ended up being for naught. They fell to 6-7, and with Minnesota, New Orleans, and Atlanta all picked up wins this week, creating a ridiculous five-way standoff for the seventh and final seed in the NFC playoff race. Because so many teams are in the race, it seems worth going over the tiebreakers. Each of the first three are listed, and where the Vikings stand compared to each team going into Week 15.
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TieBreaker #1: NFC Win Percentage
That said, the Vikings still do not control their own destiny towards earning a playoff berth. The main thing holding them back at this point is their record within the NFC. Conference records are the first level of tiebreaker that determines who actually makes the playoffs, and Minnesota has unfortunately struggled more than Washington in that department. Minnesota is 4-4 versus NFC opponents while Washington is 5-3.
These final four weeks are crucial for the Vikings as they try to improve that record. They play Green Bay, LA Rams, and Chicago (twice) over the course of this last month. Meanwhile, Washington has a an all-NFC East gauntlet to close 2021 versus the Eagles (twice), Dallas, and NY Giants.
As for the other 6-7 teams, the Eagles are also 4-4 versus NFC opponents while the Saints are 4-5 and the Falcons are just 3-6. It’s also worth noting that the Saints have head-to-head victories over both Philadelphia and Washington, which means New Orleans would have the spot if all three of these teams have the same overall record.
Tiebreaker #2: Common Games (Min. of Four)
Now, if after the season ends, the Vikings are still tied with any teams in NFC record, things turn into a mess. The tiebreaker would be win percentage in common games.
In this instance, the Vikings actually beat out the Football Team. They are 4-1 against the Chargers, Cowboys, Packers, Panthers, and Seahawks while Washington is just 2-3. A Vikings win or loss against Green Bay in a couple weeks doesn’t change anything.
The Packers game becomes a factor against the Saints, though. Minnesota is 3-1 against the Cowboys, Packers, Panthers, and Seahawks while the Saints are 2-2. A win against Green Bay secures this tiebreaker, but a loss and a Saints win against the Panthers in Week 17 evens the teams back up.
Minnesota is also currently beating out Philly in this department by going 3-3 against the Chargers, Cowboys, 49ers, Lions, and Panthers. The Eagles are 2-3 against these opponents, needing a Week 18 win against Dallas to even the score.
Luckily, the Vikings will likely beat out the Falcons in the previous tiebreaker because they have to sit on their hands in this one. Minnesota is currently winning it because of a 1-1 record against the Panthers and Cowboys compared to Atlanta’s 1-2 record. However, the Falcons have upcoming games against both the Lions and 49ers, which drops Minnesota’s record to 2-3. Atlanta needs a win in just one of these games to even the score, and a win in both gives them the tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker #3: Strength of Victory
As mentioned, there are still three teams that the Vikings could be tied with in the NFC playoff race after common wins are taken into account. The only one that has been settled to this point is Washington. So, after that, we move into the strength of victory category. Essentially, you combine the wins/losses of each opponent that the teams have beaten. Not only will this almost assuredly determine any tiebreaker, but it is the most uncertain to this point.
The Vikings also have a path towards massive improvement in this category if they can beat both/either of the Packers and/or Rams, and that’s just where I’m going to leave this for now. Currently, it wouldn’t be very helpful or worth the effort to determine the rankings with so many moving pieces at work. If needed, we can go over it in the coming weeks, so stay tuned for more Vikings playoff scenarios here on PurplePTSD.