Outlining the Vikings Possible Draft Positions
I hope you’re all ready to do some math with me.
Going into the week 17 game against Detroit, the Vikings draft possibilities are absolute chaos. They currently hold the always lucky 13th pick in this year’s NFL draft, but they sit in the middle of a log jam of six teams with 6-9 records. Those six teams also sit immediately above another jam of four teams with 5-10 records. Should the Vikings lose on Sunday against Detroit, these four teams would have an effect on where the Vikings draft pick officially lands.
Unfortunately, there’s no real easy way to determine for sure where the Vikings will land due to the fact that tiebreakers are determined through strength of schedule (hereafter referred to as SOS), with the weaker SOS getting the higher draft position. In order to determine every team’s SOS, one would have to go through every possible outcome of Sunday’s games. The total number of possible outcomes for just these games comes out to 512. Yeah, that’s a little above my paygrade.
However, we do know how far a team’s SOS can fluctuate from week to week. Each team plays 13 different opponents per season. Those 13 opponents each play 16 games, creating 208 total outcomes that determine a team’s SOS. That means the highest fluctuation in SOS that any one team can have per week is .0625. However, this can only happen if all 13 opponents that the team has on their schedule either won or lost. 13 outcomes divided by the total 208 outcomes of the season equals the .0625.
It’s not quite that simple this week, though, considering that week 17 is traditionally a divisional week. Because of this, the maximum fluctuation goes down. For the Vikings (and I’m assuming most other teams), the most their SOS can swing is .034. Because I’ve already taken way too long to explain all this, just trust me.
Anyway, here are the other ten teams along with the Vikings who are jostling for first round draft position. They will be listed in the order of their current pick:
7. Detroit Lions (5-10, SOS .504)
8. NY Giants (5-10, SOS .506)
9. Carolina Panthers (5-10, SOS .529)
10. Denver Broncos (5-10, SOS .567)
11. Dallas Cowboys (6-9, SOS .465)
12. Los Angeles Chargers (6-9, SOS .490)
13. Minnesota Vikings (6-9, SOS .508)
14. New England Patriots (6-9, SOS .533)
15. San Francisco 49ers (6-9, SOS .544)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (7-8, SOS .542)
—
19. Washington Football Team (6-9, SOS .465)
Washington is included here because with a loss, they will fall out of the playoffs, and either New York or Dallas will move into their position. Like I said, it’s chaos down here. Let’s talk through some possibilities based on this week’s possible Vikings outcomes.
Vikings Beat Lions
If the Vikings win their final game of the 2020 season, that immediately eliminates picks 7-10 from the range of possibilities. The only way the Vikings can end up with the 11th pick in this scenario is if Dallas, LA, New England, and San Francisco all win as well. Likewise, the Vikings can only end up with the 16th pick if New England, San Francisco, and Las Vegas all lose.
However, looking at Dallas’ SOS, the 11th pick is taken if the Vikings win given Dallas’ SOS is far lower than everyone else’s. The 16th pick is most likely taken as well even if the Raiders lose. This is because their SOS is much higher than the Vikings. That means the probable scenario is that Minnesota will be waiting to see where they land in the 12-15 range if they win.
Vikings Lose to Lions
If the Vikings lose on Sunday, it opens up the possibility of being rewarded with a top-10 pick. However, the best that Vikings fans can hope for here is the eighth pick. Looking at the schedule, you can see the Giants and Cowboys play each other. If the Cowboys win, the Giants guarantee a spot ahead of Minnesota by being 5-11. If the Giants win, the Cowboys most likely get a spot ahead of Minnesota due to the lower SOS unless something really strange happens.
In order for Minnesota to end up in the eighth spot, two things must happen. Carolina has to beat New Orleans, and Denver has to beat Las Vegas. This moves both Carolina and Denver to 6-10 with (most likely) a higher SOS if you remember the list from above. It would also help if LA and Dallas both won their games. The Dallas choice is due to the fact that if Washington and New York both lose, then Dallas and Washington are both competing with Minnesota for a position. If you remember, both teams have significantly lower SOS than the Vikings.
Wins from these teams forces them into a lower pick and takes away the scary proposition of waiting on SOS to determine what happens. No matter what happens though, Minnesota has to wait to see who has the lowest SOS of Detroit, Denver, Carolina and themselves. Currently, only Detroit’s is lower than Minnesota’s, but it would go even lower with a victory over the Vikings.
Overall, the 16th pick is automatically eliminated in this situation because it ensures Las Vegas will have a better record. The high SOS of both New England and San Francisco means Minnesota will likely be picking before them, which eliminates picks 14 and 15. So, the final range that Minnesota will be looking at with a loss is anywhere from 8-13 depending on other results.
If you’re still confused after all that, here are the teams you should root for no matter what this Sunday to ensure a better draft pick for the Vikings: Chargers, Patriots, 49ers, Broncos, Football Team.
