Minnesota Ought to Lean Into The 1-Year, Prove-It Deal
I’m more optimistic about Minnesota’s finances than most, but I recognize that their resources are very finite. If things proceed like I expect them to, the Vikings will be able to add one marquee free agent. From there, it’ll likely be a tier-2 player or two and veteran depth pieces. Alternatively, they could pickup several solid players without splurging on one star.
Obviously, the team will be hoping the players they sign outperform their deals. One way to maximize their chances of snagging a player who vastly outperforms their deal is the 1-year, prove-it deal.
The contract, in essence, allows players to show the NFL what they’re capable of. If done successfully, the player will get a chance at a much larger deal the following year.
The Vikings took this approach with Patrick Peterson last offseason. His play had declined in Arizona, and he was looking around for his next opportunity. The finances were manageable on Minnesota’s end because Pat Pete was signed to a 1-year, $8 million deal. For Minnesota, it’s reassuring that they don’t have to bring Peterson back. Peterson was able to showcase what he’s still capable of doing. Unfortunately for him, it seems unlikely he’ll be able to snag another large contract. Rather, he’ll likely need to opt for another prove-it deal.
On the other end of things is Packers LB De’Vondre Campbell. The veteran played on a one-year, $2 million deal in 2021. He went on to be PFF‘s 2nd-best LB. Oh, and he was a first-team All Pro. Now that was a good deal for the team. He will soon get a sizeable raise.
In this year’s batch of free agents, veteran defensive linemen like Jerry Hughes, Justin Houston, and Akiem Hicks stand out. Could one (or more) of the players be brought in on a relatively modest contract? If so, they may outperform their deal. Motivation and a change of scenery can do wonders for a veteran player.
If the Vikings wanted someone a touch more youthful, perhaps someone like Arden Key makes some sense. At 25, Key still has a lot of football left. He only played 35% of the defensive snaps in SF last season, so it’s notable that he was still capable of snagging 6.5 sacks.
The early days of free agency will mostly involve the main free agents signing large contracts. Once the dust has settled, teams will make moves for players who didn’t have the market they were hoping for. Minnesota’s approach will likely be to devote their finances toward the high-end players at the beginning. After learning who they could sign and not sign, the team will likely turn its attention to some prove-it deals.
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