Is Pat Shurmur Leaving The Vikings To Be A Head Coach In 2018?
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Fresh off the heels of a 34-7 evisceration of whatever was left of the Cincinnati Bengals, the Vikings are poised to make a deep NFC playoff run. The team feels like a far cry from the 8-8 2016 squad that left fans, coaches and players alike disappointed and hungry. Part of this monumental turnaround is the masterful offensive orchestration from OC Pat Shurmur.
Shurmur didn’t enter MN with a great reputation. After two rough offensive outputs in St. Louis and Cleveland, Shurmur spent three years as Chip Kelly’s apprentice before joining the Vikings as a position coach. One Norv Turner resignation later, and Shurmur was calling offensive plays in a conservative West Coast system once more.
But this season marked a huge turnaround for Pat. The Vikings offense is rolling with a backup quarterback, and his play designs have done a lot to cover up any of Case Keenum’s deficiencies. He’s having a great year, and whenever a coordinator has a great year, the head coaching whispers start to ramp up.
There are many former head coaches among the rank-and-file of NFL coaching staffs. Dennis Allen (NO), Josh McDaniel (NE), Tom Cable (SEA) Wade Phillips (LAR), and more are quietly hiding from the fallout of their failed head coaching tenures and doing the thing that got them hired in the first place, much like Shurmur. It takes time to cleanse the stink of a head coaching failure. There are a few coaches in the league that are on their second stint, and provide the best case study for what to expect in terms of Shurmur’s immediate future.
Some of the second-chance head coaches had big enough reputations to go from one head coaching job to another. Andy Reid, John Fox, and Jeff Fisher (RIP) all had Super Bowl appearances and long tenures as a head coach to persuade coach-hungry teams. Shurmur has no such résumé. So what about the coaches with similar track records as head coaches? How did they earn their next chance?
Pete Carroll, SEA: Pete Carroll’s first stint in the NFL was a catastrophe, much like Shrumur’s 9-23 tenure in Cleveland. The ’94 Jets were 6-10, losing five straight to close out the year. Carroll only lasted one year. He got a second chance in New England, making the playoffs in his first two years in 1997 and 1998, but the leash was short. After blowing a 4-0 start and losing 6 of his last 8 in 1999, Carroll was fired. It took ten years of domination at USC for Seattle to give him a third chance. Not a comparable circumstance.
Jim Caldwell, DET: Like Reid, Fox and Fisher, Jim Caldwell had a Super Bowl appearance to lean on after Indianapolis. He was fired after a year that could be understood not to be his fault. After a Peyton Manning neck injury, Caldwell had to lean on Curtis Painter, making a 2-14 record palatable for future suitors. It helps that as interim OC with the Ravens, he was able to win a Super Bowl and compare favorably to Cam Cameron. Shurmur doesn’t have that kind of accolade… yet.
Jack Del Rio, OAK: Del Rio never escaped the shadow of Tom Coughlin in Jacksonville, but had a coaching record greater than .500 before serving as the defensive coordinator of Denver’s historic defenses earlier this decade, which earned him a second chance in Oakland. His head coaching record was far above Shurmur’s, and set records as a coordinator. Shurmur doesn’t measure up quite yet.
Doug Marrone, JAX: Marrone’s tale is a truly bizarre one. He was 15-17 with Buffalo, and while his record was better than Shurmur’s, his awkward exit makes for a comparable situation. Marrone earned his second shot after Gus Bradley was fired mid-season, taking the interim job as the only one on the staff with head coaching experience. It’s unlikely that any other team would give Marrone a chance, considering his Buffalo reputation. His current reign in Jacksonville is directly related to the three interim games he coached at the end of 2016.
Mike Mularkey, TEN: Mularkey only lasted two years in Buffalo in 2004 and 2005, failing to gain any traction with Drew Bledsoe, Kelly Holcomb and J.P. Losman at QB. It took five years as an offensive coordinator, mostly during Matt Ryan’s formative years, to dig out of that hole. Even then, he was given no leash in Jacksonville in 2012, getting fired after one 2-14 year. Like Marrone, he was given the head coaching job after a successful interim tryout. Shurmur will get no interim opportunities this year.
Hue Jackson, CLE: Hue is perhaps the best example we can look at for Pat Shurmur. Like Shurmur, he had a short, forgettable stay in a dysfunctional organization (Oakland in 2011). Like Shurmur, he needed to work his way all the way back from position coach to offensive coordinator. And like Shurmur, he had a single miracle season as OC in 2015. There are some minor differences, but Shurmur’s situation is very similar to the one that got Jackson an opportunity in Cleveland. Unfortunately, there is no organization that matches Cleveland in its head-scratching hiring choices, and Shurmur already sailed that ship with JimmY Haslam.
Hue Jackson notwithstanding, it seems like there are three ways to get a second head coaching job in the current iteration of the NFL: Be a long-tenured head coach of a constant contender, have a historic multi-year reign as a coordinator, or get an interim audition and nail it. Shurmur doesn’t check any of those boxes. If Jimmy Haslam hadn’t fired Shurmur after buying the team in 2012, the Browns would be a perfect candidate to take a chance on him. Otherwise, Shurmur could be praying for an unattractive organization like the Texans or Bengals to settle for him.
There are far more coordinators that stay coordinators after a failed head coaching tenure, even after successful seasons as a coordinator. Scott Linehan, Josh McDaniel, Mike Smith, Wade Phillips, Rod Marinelli, Mike Tice, Gus Bradley, Jim Schwartz, and more top a list of head coaches that can’t shake the bad mojo of their failed head coaching tenures. It’s also worth mentioning that these second-chance coaches don’t work out too often. There are more Jeff Fishers, Hue Jacksons and John Foxes than there are Pete Carrolls or Doug Marrones. Shurmur’s past looks much more like it belongs among the “coordinator for a while” group.
Pat Shumur has been an excellent offensive coordinator in 2017, but there have been quite a few excellent assistants that aren’t suffering from the odor of a 9-23 head coaching record. Mike Vrabel, Frank Reich, Paul Guenther, Bill Callahan, Matt Patricia, Jim Bob Cooter and more headline a list of fresh names that could lure in needy teams. That’s not to say Shurmur is staying with any certainty, but he has a lot of history to transcend.
Thanks for reading!