Frey’s Fantasy Focus: Former star RBs to consider
Josh Frey
|
The running back position is unquestionably the deepest in fantasy football this year, with rushers owning 14 of the top 15 spots in ESPN’s fantasy rankings. The usual suspects remain at the very top in Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey, New York’s Saquon Barkley, and Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliot. However, after those three there are some question marks.
For example, right below these three, at four and five, are Dalvin Cook, who has never played more than 14 games in a season, and Alvin Kamara, who is reportedly having issues with his back again. What if these two miss time again this year?
Outside of some injury issues, there are a few backs who have been stars in past seasons that find themselves on new teams. Should we be excited about their potential this season, or is the grass not always greener on the other side?
Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons
Gurley finds himself in a unique position where his new team as well as his durability are under scrutiny this season.Talk about a double whammy. Gurley is currently ranked as the 17th RB and 43rd overall, so a fourth or fifth round pick. This just two years removed from him being the top fantasy back in 2018, finishing fourth overall in scoring. However, after playing through knee issues and a quad strain in 2019, the Rams decided to let him go despite playing in 15 games and scoring 14 total touchdowns.
Gurley joins an Atlanta squad where by all accounts, he has looked great during practice, and he should get plenty of touches with veteran Devonta Freeman leaving the team after the 2019 season. That said, we won’t know for sure until he lines up next Sunday against the restocked Seattle defense.
There are also more questions all over this Atlanta roster than there were on the Rams teams that Gurley thrived on in 2017 and 2018. Matt Ryan seems to be on a path towards regression, the defense is pretty terrible, and the offensive line may be even worse than it was last year when they gave up 50 sacks, and running backs only gained 84 rushing first downs all season.
Even with these issues, this is still a very talented Todd Gurley. I would make him a surefire flex starter simply because he should get plenty of touches, and he has the chance every week to vault himself into the RB1 discussion because of his touchdown potential. He has scored 54 touchdowns in his last 44 regular season games.
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Staying in the new-look NFC South, Tampa Bay took advantage of a surprise release by Jacksonville. This is a massive season for Fournette. After breaking onto the scene in his rookie year of 2017, injuries derailed his 2018 campaign. SInce then, he has been mostly under the radar in fantasy. He bounced back (sort of) in 2019 as he rushed for over 1000 yards, but he scored just three total touchdowns. The tensions between Fournette and Jacksonville are well documented though, so maybe new scenery will be good to him?
Let me start this out by saying I am very skeptical of this Tampa Bay team in general. I don’t care that they have the fifth highest Super Bowl odds. Tom Brady, while so far being able to evade Father Time, is now playing QB at a mind-boggling 43 years old and showed signs of regression last season.
Rob Gronkowski also is coming out of retirement after spending the past 18 months partying and doing WWE stunts. Can he still run-block at an NFL level? I have my doubts. The receiving core is promising, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin leading the depth chart, but the offensive line is average at best, with backs only gaining 3.7 yards per attempt in 2019.
As far as Fournette’s fantasy value, he is currently ranked 34th among RBs. At first glance, that seems insanely low for a 1000 yard rusher who can also make a difference in the passing game (100 targets in 2019). It’s less insane when you look at his counterparts in the backfield. Lesean McCoy will probably be getting touches in the passing game as a third down back.
People are also overlooking how much of a role Ronald Jones II could have this year. In his first full season as a starting back, Jones had a better yard per rush average than Fournette, and he had twice as many touchdowns in nearly 100 fewer carries.
Fournette will probably not be seeing the ball much near the end zone either as he averaged an atrocious 1.35 yards per carry in the red zone during the 2019 season. Overall, Fournette is probably only worth a late round pick for draft-and-stash purposes.