Have no fear: Zimmer’s unprecedented success bodes well for expectations with Cousins

Kevin Gendron   |  

Jul 13, 2018

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Super Bowl or-bust. It’s been the phrase used to describe the Vikings offseason after finally landing their quarterback of the future. This team finally has an answer at the game’s most vital position, and it’s time for one of the league’s most talented teams to bring the first Super Bowl home to Minnesota. For most fans, this would be exciting times, but to Vikings fans, it’s scary and it’s uncomfortable.

We’re not used to high expectations. In previous years, not having continuity at quarterback was almost perfect, because it was a built-in excuse each year, but this year it’s different. First and foremost, “Super Bowl or bust” is an unfair expectation on its own. Super Bowls are VERY hard to win. Heck, the Bills once lost four straight. Also, the NFL season has an abundance of moving parts and so many teams are equipped for success in a league that sees 50% of its playoff teams change year over year. Due to the pessimism that comes with being a Vikings fan, I sit here, look at arguably the best roster in the NFL and make excuses for the upcoming season. I find myself wishing we were in the AFC, and a shoe-in for the playoffs. I’m afraid that in a loaded NFC, with the return of Aaron Rodgers and a gauntlet of a road schedule, this team may not even make the playoffs. I’m scared because I love this team and I love this coaching staff. The last thing I want them to do is fail under sky-high expectations.

So where do we look to convince ourselves that the 2018 Vikings are the team? Despite the doubts that continually creep into my head, I’m pushing the pessimism aside and embracing the expectations. Vikings history tells us otherwise, but this is the team that can do it, and it starts with stability at quarterback and Coach Zimmer at the helm.

Since becoming head coach in 2014, there has been anything but consistency at quarterback for Zimmer. It’s a quarterback-driven league, but the Vikings have had been an anomaly in having success without a mainstay at the position. In fact, Zimmer holds a .609 win percentage which matches that of teams with consistent, elite signal-callers. Let’s break down Zimmer’s tenure by the numbers and how it compares to the rest of the league based off quarterback variance and quarterback share:

**All numbers reflect regular season statistics**

.609

Let’s start with the win-percentage. Since 2014, remarkably, only seven teams have the same or better win percentage as the Vikings:

Aside from the Cardinals, who are a victim of recency bias, these teams boast many of the best quarterbacks in the league and all are perennial playoff contenders. If we expand to see their quarterback stats, it’s easy to see why.

The team that comes closest to the Vikings is the aforementioned Cardinals, and even they had Carson Palmer play the equivalent of a full-season more than Bridgewater. Clearly, the Vikings are a severe outlier, not only from the talent of their quarterback, but the consistency they received from the position.

6

So who do the Vikings line-up with? Well in terms of quarterback variance, it’s the cellar dwellers. In Zimmer’s four years, six quarterbacks have started games for the Vikings. Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater, Christian Ponder, Shaun Hill, Sam Bradford and Case Keenum have each started a game throughout Zimmer’s tenure. Only three teams join the Vikings with the honor of starting 6+ QBs in this four-year span:

44%

As we saw above, the Vikings have had their ‘majority quarterback’ start less than half of their games with Bridgewater starting 44% of Zimmer’s games. Six other teams join them in this regard:

Here, we have some teams over .500 join the Vikings in the Broncos and Eagles. These teams have the win-percentage, quarterback variance and quarterback share most similar to the Vikings. Unfortunately, where they differ is that they’ve won two of the Super Bowls in this time frame, each boasting MVP candidates as their majority quarterback. In the Broncos case it was one of the best quarterbacks of all-time in Peyton Manning, and in the Eagles case, it is budding star Carson Wentz, a far cry from what the Vikings have sent out each of the past four years.

2

At last, we come to two, which is the number of other teams that have had 6+ QBs start a game and have a Majority QB < 50%: The Browns and the Texans. The Vikings quarterback quality was much stronger than that of Cleveland and Houston, but it’s impressive to see that the Vikings quarterback situation has strong similarities with them, yet are tied for fifth in win-percentage under Zimmer’s guidance, while the Browns and Texans are below .500.

It’s clear Zimmer has had a below-average hand at quarterback when it comes to consistency with respect to the rest of the league. The Vikings have found quality starters in each season to stay afloat, but it’s clear the best teams have consistency at the position. Additionally, Zimmer prepared each offseason with a certain QB and has had to pivot more often than not. In 2014 he began with Cassel (which became Bridgewater). In 2015 it was Bridgewater (it was Bridgewater) In 2016 it was Bridgewater (which became Bradford). In 2017 it was Bradford (which became Keenum). Zimmer has grown accustomed to question marks at the NFL’s most important position, and impressively, he and the Vikings have built a defensive powerhouse and found consistent success in an unlikely manner.

Now, he has the core of his defense locked up for years to come, in addition to what everyone anticipates being the long-term answer at quarterback. By recounting the success Zimmer has had with less resources at the league’s most important position, it is hard not to be excited about what the 2018 Vikings will be, and what will be built upon in the next three years with Cousins under contract.

As such, it’s time to feed into the expectation, and stop treading lightly. Pessimism will always follow this team, but there’s no reason this team or the fans should shy away from its Super Bowl aspirations.  As I said, it’s a loaded NFC, Aaron Rodgers is back in the division and the schedule is a gauntlet, but the Vikings are as talented as anybody, and with the prospect of quarterback consistency combined with Zimmer’s track record, it’s not time to worry about expectations, it’s time to be excited about them. Any way you slice it, there’s a window of opportunity, and who’s to say it won’t be this year? Zimmer has something at his disposal he hasn’t had before and it just so happens to be the most important piece.