All In on the Vikings Quarterback Quandary
Joe Oberle
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A few weeks ago, Punxsutawney Phil the groundhog saw his shadow, which predicted that six more weeks of Vikings quarterback discussion. So, before the Vikings make a decision and actually start doing something (free agency begins March 12), I thought I had better weigh in on the subject.
I decided to conduct a straightforward rating of some of the more important characteristics for the quarterbacks who appear to be in play for the Vikings, including Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, Kirk Cousins and Josh McCown and, okay, A.J. McCarron. Luke Braun does all the number analysis on this site, and since my siblings got all the number genes in my family, I will use letter graders. Here we go:
Arm Strength
Case Keenum—B- (okay, but not great)
Teddy Bridgewater— B- (okay, but not great)
Sam Bradford—B (a little better. Has some zip, but is losing his legs)
Kirk Cousins—A (better still, perhaps the best of the bunch)
Josh McCown—C (average)
A.J. McCarron—B+ (better than most, here)
Decision making
CK—B- (some of those picks he threw last year were just very unwise)
TB—B+ (if his is not gun shy)
SB—B+ (would be higher if there weren’t so many check downs in 2016)
KC—B- (has a reputation for panicking under pressure)
JM—B- (ditto to Cousins, at times)
AJM—B (from what little we know of him)
Accuracy (okay, a few numbers)
CK—B (61.9 percent in 38 starts)
TB—B (64.7 percent in 28 starts)
SB—B+ (62.5 percent in 80 starts)
KC—A- (65.5 percent in 57 starts)
JM—B- (60.4 percent in 73 starts)
AJM—B- (64.7 percent in 3 starts)
Touchdown to Interception Ratio (Career leader is Aaron Rodgers at 4.01)
CK—B (46/27, 1.70 ratio)
TB—B- (28/22, 1.27 ratio)
SB—B (101/57, 1.77 ratio)
KC—B+ (99/55, 1.80 ratio)
JM—B- (97/78, 1.24 ratio)
AJM—A (6/2, 3.00 ratio) A (if he can keep it up)
Leadership
CK—A- (he made a huge leap this past season— “I’m going to give someone a chance.”)
TB—B+ (he has it and the team loves him, but he’s been out of the huddle for two seasons)
SB—B+ (quiet leader, but showed some toughness with a very bad o-line in 2016)
KC—B- (not sure, Washington should want him; but there is that quote: “You like that!”)
JM—B- (journeyman who, until perhaps this year, hasn’t really made a locker room his own)
AJM—B+ (he was the man at ‘Bama, but . . . we will see)
Knowledge of the offense
It’s hard to say on this one since Pat Shurmur took his ball and went to New York, although Kevin Stefanski and company might keep some remnants of the offense around. That said, the three Vikings from last season have a leg up in that they are all known quantities to the organization. But offensive coordinator John DeFilippo will bring in his own offense, so, to a degree, everyone starts on equal footing.
Zimmer’s guy
CK—B+ (he gets this grade for his “big balls.” Zimmer really warmed up to him)
TB—A+ (we all know this, don’t we)
SB—B+ (could have been Zim’s guy, but the knee injury threw everyone for a loop)
KC—B (he’s saying the right things in that he’d like to play in Minnesota)
JM—C (not sure what Zimmer thinks of him, but he appears to be a stand-up guy)
AJM—B (former Cincy guy; Zim could get the scoop from Marvin Lewis and learn to love him)
DeFilippo likes him
Vikings offensive coordinator John DeFilippo likes every quarterback mentioned, so far—so he says. So, they all get A’s. Although, if you were holding a Helga horn to his throat, he would say that he likes a quarterback who can move in the pocket. And we can all agree that in today’s NFL (and Fran Tarkenton’s day) that is a great asset. Therefore:
CK—A-
TB—B+ (if his knee is sound)
SB—C+ (even if his knee is sound)
KC—A-
JM—B
AJM—B+
Health (one of the two biggest factors in making the decision)
CK—A
TB—C (I’m not convinced we’re out of the woods yet with Teddy’s knee—got to see him play)
SB—C+ (I’m not convinced we’re out of the woods yet with Sam’s knee, but it’s possible)
KC—A
JM—B- (16 years will beget a long list of injuries—broke his left hand in 2017)
AJM—B (young without much time in the pocket, but has had a few injuries)
Potential Cost Contract (and this is the other biggest factor)
CK—B- (could price himself out of Minnesota, but maybe stays for the home discount)
TB—A (if contract is tolled and he and Case duke it out); B- (otherwise, it could be messy)
SB—B (price shouldn’t be the problem with Sam, but he will want starter’s money)
KC—C- (if $25-30 million per year is accurate, downgrade this to a D-)
JM—B+ (coming off a good year, but he shouldn’t break the bank)
AJM—B+ (give him a prove-it contract that is cap friendly, and nothing more)
Certainly, there are more things to consider when making this decision, and to be sure, these are my own subjective categories and arbitrary grades. Plus, as stated, some categories are weighted more than others. But, if we attach a numerical equivalent (that sounds so numbery) to the letter grades (see below), we can total them up.
A+=0
A=1
A-=2
B+=3
B=4
B-=5
C+=6
C=7
C-=8
D+=9
D=10
D-=11
In this exercise, we come out with the golf-like score of the lowest total as the best—and some of the results are surprising. Bradford finishes in fifth place with a 36 (primarily due to his questionable health and lack of mobility) and McCown brings up the rear with 47 points (a score mitigated by my limited knowledge of him).
With the lowest score on the board, A.J. McCarron clocks in at 30. Now, we must take his numbers/letters with a grain of salt as his sample size is significantly smaller than the rest of the group. (We can expect his TD/INT ratio to lower with more game action—at least I expect it to). And I will subjectively say that if the Vikings take him as their quarterback of the present and future, I am going to find a time machine and go back in the past.
Therefore, if we agree that we can’t quite quantify McCarron’s numbers yet and throw him out, we end with a three-way tie for the top spot at 31 points between Keenum, Bridgewater and Cousins, which really doesn’t solve much—then again, maybe it informs this quandary in the first place. I was surprised at how close this trio ranks to each other, but the numbers seem to say that the Vikings should either try to get Case and Teddy or Cousins and Kyle Sloter and draft another quarterback. I don’t think the contract numbers would allow for any other scenario involving any of these three QBs.
I am all in for Case and Teddy (or Cousins at a reasonable number). Should be interesting to find out what the Vikings are all in for.