Wisdom From Last Season’s Optimistic Offseason
K. Joudry
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It’s easy to forget, but many fans were feeling enthusiastic about the Vikings last offseason.
Sure, 2020 didn’t go great, but we had good evidence that a bounceback was coming. Mike Zimmer’s teams routinely went back and forth between good and bad years. 2021 thus looked like a good year just based on the simple pattern.
Even more encouraging, perhaps, was that the defensive talent appeared to be significantly improved. Danielle Hunter was healthy, and so was Michael Pierce. Dalvin Tomlinson was signed, and they also brought back Everson Griffen. That front four was supposed to make Minnesota difficult to run on. The pair of edge rushers were supposed to create issues on third down.
Unfortunately, all four ended up missing time. Tomlinson was the only one consistently in the lineup.
At linebacker, there was some offseason hope that Anthony Barr – though overpaid – could still help the Vikings in both run and pass defense. Adding the veteran trio of Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland, and Mackensie Alexander was supposed to raise the secondary’s floor. Instead, Barr again battled injuries, and the secondary was awful. Both Breeland and Alexander were very bad. Peterson was merely pretty good.
How little we knew during the last year’s offseason.
Making matters even more optimistic was that well respected national pundits were giving the Vikings praise. After discussing Minnesota’s bad luck with injury in 2020, Sheil Kapadia goes on to praise the veteran additions we just discussed. Shortly thereafter, Kapadia provides further rationale for why he ranks them as the #1 defense heading into the 2021 season:
On paper, it’s probably not the most talented group, but coach Mike Zimmer is one of the smartest defensive minds in the NFL. The Vikings finished first, third and fourth in defensive efficiency from 2017 to 2019. Barring another bout of terrible injury luck, they’re talented enough to get back into that range this season.
Looking back, we can see that Kapadia’s assessment was way off. Here’s the thing, though: so were a lot of people’s predictions. I certainly expected the Vikings to reclaim some former glory. The defense should have been way better, and yet we all witnessed the troubling trends not only continue but somehow get worse.
The end-of-half defense was historically bad. The coverage was largely absent in many critical moments. By the end of the season, there were plenty of times when the run defense looked completely gassed.
Does last season’s failure make a 2022 failure more likely? By no means. This is a different team playing under new leadership. We may see the same result, but that’s far from set in stone.
Last year’s example does provide us with some reason to rein in our Vikings offseason enthusiasm, though. The NFL season is an unpredictable one. The 2022 Vikings – like the 2021 iteration of themselves – ought to show considerable growth on defense, but we shouldn’t foolishly count our purple chickens before they’re hatched. Take the predictions about Minnesota having the #1 secondary with a grain of salt.
So, be enthusiastic about Harrison Phillips and Za’Darius Smith, Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth Jr. Hope that Minnesota will take a huge step forward. Just know that we’ve got a long way to go.
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