What’s the Vikings’ Floor in 2026?
The Minnesota Vikings’ 2025 season felt like a nightmare at many points, yet in true Vikings’ fashion, that somehow wasn’t the complete story.
It felt like the world was crumbling down after their Week 13 whooping at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks. Sure, Max Brosmer was starting that week and expectations were low. However, Minnesota somehow saw those expectations and went even lower. It was a 26-0 score in a game that felt like absolutely nothing positive came out of it. And that’s because it didn’t.
This loss actually ended up being the final negative mark on their win/loss record for the season. 4-8 was their bottoming out, and in heroic fashion, the Vikings finished the year on a 5-game win streak, finishing 9-8. This could be their floor for 2026.
Vikings’ 2026 Squad Shouldn’t Bottom Out as 2025’s Did
We still don’t know who will be the starting QB come opening day of the 2026 regular season when the Vikings host the Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. However, it wouldn’t be a bad bet to say that whoever it is will be better than the quarterbacks who played in 2025.
That’s not to say it can’t be J.J. McCarthy. In a blunt but hopeful way, it’s hard to think that McCarthy could be much worse than he was for over 90% of his playtime. McCarthy technically won games in 2025, which, of course, is the most important thing. However, they weren’t displays of a sustainable method of winning football games over the long-term. If McCarthy is to win a QB competition, presumably between him and Kyler Murray, there’s hope that it would be a truly healthy McCarthy with more NFL experience and a better grasp of what not to do as a signal-caller.
As of now, we can assess that if Kyler Murray starts Week 1, the ceiling is immediately higher than what we saw from Vikings QBs in 2025. QB play is the #1 driver or detractor to team success in this league, and Minnesota is coming off a season in which it was horrible, yet they licked their wounds and limped to a winning record.
The Vikings’ Ceiling Has Raised By Default
Assuming that QB play has no way of getting worse, and Brian Flores’ defense is what it always is, Minnesota’s ceiling just got a bit higher.
Conveniently, with the Vikings’ 2026 NFL Draft methodology of infusing their defense with young talent, their future is brighter as well. Caleb Banks, Domonique Orange, and Jakobe Thomas, in the best-case scenario, will lead the Vikings’ defense into the future while contributing to a team that is built to win this season.
If the Vikings’ offense can close a bit of the gap between it and the defense in 2025, then we may be talking about a team that can go deep here. Obviously, QB play is the main deciding factor, and so is QB health.
In the two seasons where the starting QB played all 17 games under Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota’s floor has been 13 wins. Additionally, in total, between Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, and J.J. McCarthy, those starting QBs who were named starters before the season started have a 35-17 win-loss record.
With that being said, I guess you could say the floor raised a bit, too.
