Sam Darnold Won’t Be 2025’s Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield came into the NFL together as two of the top three picks in the 2018 NFL Draft, but they are now clearly trending in different directions.
Darnold’s career season with the Minnesota Vikings went thud on Monday amid a second-straight loss. Before his two season-ending defeats, Darnold looked on track to do what Mayfield did in Tampa Bay—turn his career around and land a $100 million contract in 2024. Now, Darnold may not garner anything close to that, and he may not land a starting job in 2025.
Mayfield and Darnold had similar career trajectories before 2023 as both floundered with their original teams—albeit to different degrees. Both then moved around the NFL with at least two other teams before finally finding a successful stop. For Mayfield, that commenced in 2023 when he replaced all-time great Tom Brady with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and led the team back to the postseason, which ended with a Divisional Round loss to the Detroit Lions.
Mayfield previously bounced around with the Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers, and Los Angeles Rams before the Buccaneers signed him to a team-friendly deal of $4 million. Darnold and Mayfield crossed paths in Carolina during the 2022 season as the New York Jets previously sent Darnold to Carolina before a one-year stint with the San Francisco 49ers in 2023.
Mayfield shined in his first year with the Buccaneers amid a 64.3% completion rate for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns versus 10 interceptions. Darnold delivered similar numbers in his first year with the Vikings amid a 66.2% completion rate for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns versus 12 interceptions.
In addition, Darnold won more games (14) than Mayfield (9) in the regular season, but Darnold’s arguments for $100 million took a major hit in the last two weeks. As Hall of Fame quarterback and ESPN broadcaster Troy Aikman put it, Darnold’s recent decline in the biggest games of the season will weigh heavily.
“These last 2 weeks will have a big impact on his future,” Aikman said during the broadcast on Monday. “Not only what that may look like for the Minnesota Vikings, but a big impact on what that may look like for him going to another team. Is there going to be the big payout that looked inevitable a few weeks ago?”
“It may not be as big as what Sam or others thought. These are the games that matter. He knows that, every quarterback in this league knows that. When you get into these games, that’s what you’re judged on,” Aikman concluded.
Mayfield delivered in the playoffs last season before his big contract. He led the Buccaneers to a dominant win over the Philadelphia Eagles, and his team lost by a score to the Detroit Lions at Ford Field.
Statistically, Mayfield has a 64.5% completion rate for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns versus three picks in five career playoff games, smashing Darnold’s one-game sample of a 62.5% completion rate for 245 yards and a touchdown versus an interception plus a fumble.
That’s after he played one of the worst games of his career in Detroit on Jan. 5. Darnold only completed 43.9% of his passes for 166 yards with no touchdowns or picks.
If the Vikings keep him, it’s arguable that there’s a quarterback competition between him and J.J. McCarthy in training camp. While there’s justifiably doubt about Darnold starting in Minnesota next season, that’s the case with any free-agent suitors despite the fact he’s still arguably the top quarterback free-agent prospect in 2025.
Teams likely looking for a quarterback include both New York teams, the Cleveland Browns, and the Las Vegas Raiders to name a few. All of the aforementioned teams are in rebuild mode, which means paying a quarterback big money or making a veteran a franchise quarterback may not make sense.
Darnold showed his potential for much of the season in Minnesota, but the last two games likely have sent him back to where he was in early 2024 as a potential bridge or backup quarterback whether with the Vikings or elsewhere. Duplicating what Mayfield did in Tampa looks unlikely for Darnold as free agency approaches in two months.
