Is T.J. Hockenson Washed?
By a fairly wide margin, T.J. Hockenson is having his worst season as a Viking so far. In 11 games this season, he is averaging just 27.2 yards per game, in contrast with 45.5 ypg in 2024 and 64 ypg in 2023.
So, is TJ Hockenson washed? Or is his drop in production due to factors outside his control? There’s a case to be made either way:
Washed
Hockenson hasn’t been quite himself since he returned from a torn ACL and MCL midway through the 2024 season. His speed was down in 2024, according to PFF, and on tape, he just hasn’t looked as explosive or able to separate as he once was.
Furthermore, while drops have always been a bit of an issue for Hockenson, he’s dropping passes at a higher rate this season. As measured by Fox Sports, Hockenson has dropped 6% of his targets this season.
All told, Hockenson’s PFF grade for 2025 sits at a mediocre 57.8.
Not Washed
At age 28, Hockenson is older than the average NFL tight end by about 1.5 years, but he’s still young enough that you wouldn’t expect a big age-related decline.
Early in the 2025 season, the Vikings suffered from a string of offensive line injuries. Faced with a rotating committee of backups, they were forced to keep Hockenson in to chip more than they would have liked. This may have slightly hurt Hockenson’s target share.
More importantly, the Vikings’ offense has been completely dysfunctional, so every receiver on the team has been having a down year. At present, Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy has the highest average depth of target in the entire NFL. He has consistently chosen to target Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison downfield, often with wildly inaccurate passes, rather than check it down to his tight end. So perhaps the issue isn’t that Hockenson has been letting down the Vikings’ offense; perhaps the Vikings’ offense has been letting down Hockenson.
Sometimes, good players simply have down years, then bounce back. As a close-to-home example, Adam Thielen underwhelmed for the Vikings in 2022, then posted a 1000-yard season with the Panthers in 2023. Hockenson could rebound in the years ahead.
Bottom Line
Hockenson has no guaranteed money on his contract, and the Vikings can save $16 million by cutting him this offseason.
It seems reasonable that the Vikings would want to lower Hockenson’s pay, given his decline in production over the last two seasons, but it also seems plausible that Hockenson would take a slight pay cut rather than having to seek a new contract elsewhere.
Even if Hockenson isn’t the elite TE he once was, he’s still a capable player, and he may see an increased role if the Vikings’ QB play improves.