NFC North Preview 4: Minnesota Vikings
This is the fourth in a four-part series previewing the NFC North. We’ve already talked about the Bears, Lions, and Packers.
I saved the best for last.
Last Season: Unexpected Success
Before the 2024 season, ESPN’s Seth Walden published an article in which he simulated the season once (I’m not sure why). The result of the simulation: the Vikings finished dead last en route to the first overall pick.
The reality was almost the polar opposite. The 2024 Vikings went 14-3 and were just one Week 18 win away from the top seed in the NFC. QB Sam Darnold turned his career around, finally displaying the skill that got him drafted 3rd overall in 2018, and earning himself a major payday from the Seattle Seahawks this offseason.
Yet, as is often the case in a single-elimination playoff format, the season ended in disappointment. Darnold fell apart in the two games that mattered most, and the Vikings were once again unable to progress past the Wild Card round.
Biggest Moves:
The Vikings invested heavily in the trenches this offseason. On the defensive side, they brought in Jonathan Allen from the Commanders and Javon Hargrave from the 49ers. Both are two-time Pro Bowlers, but both are on the wrong side of 30 and coming off injuries that cost them the majority of the 2024 season.
Even bigger moves came on the interior of the offensive line. The Vikings brought in C Ryan Kelly and G Will Fries and used their first-round draft pick on G Donovan Jackson out of Ohio State. The interior offensive line has long been an issue for the Vikings, and the front office is betting heavily that these newcomers will be a long-term solution; all five of the Vikings’ projected starters on the offensive line are now under contract through at least 2026.
Biggest Loss:
It was unsurprising that the Vikings let Darnold walk in free agency: he was always meant to be a one-year bridge QB, and although Darnold played like a top 10-15 QB in 2024, there is no guarantee he’d be able to maintain his success in 2025 and beyond.
So now, the hopes of the state rest on the shoulders of J.J. McCarthy. The team is betting that the newly revamped offensive line, the coaching staff, and the receiving weapons make McCarthy’s job easier than normal for a first-year QB.
Bottom Line
When it comes to the preseason perception of the Vikings, there is an enormous disconnect between the national media and the fans. The Vegas over-under for the Vikings is now 9.5 wins (recently up from 8.5), but polls consistently show that Vikings fans expect the team to win the division and go on a deep playoff run.
Neither outcome would be too surprising. In the worst-case scenario, the 2025 Vikings season goes the same way as the 2023 season after the Week 8 injury to Kirk Cousins: McCarthy plays like a journeyman backup QB, the league figures out the Brian Flores defense, and a couple of injuries deplete an already suspect secondary. The sort of collapse that Seth Walder predicted for the Vikings in 2024 is not beyond the realm of possibility for the Vikings in 2025.
But it’s also plausible that the 2025 Vikings look like the 2018 Chiefs in their first year with Patrick Mahomes under center or the 2022 Eagles in their second full year of Jalen Hurts. Good things tend to happen for young QBs when they get to play for great coaches with explosive weapons, and you can’t blame Vikings fans for being extra optimistic this year.
The Vikings have a brutal schedule this season, and they play in a tough division. I think the most likely outcome for the team is narrowly missing out on a wild card spot, but I could very easily (and very happily) be proven wrong.