J.J. McCarthy: A 2024 Draft Profile Revisit as 2025 Prepares for Lift Off
It’s seemed like eternity since we’ve seen J.J. McCarthy play the game of American football, and, well, that’s because it has been.
Yes, he played one singular preseason game in August of 2024 — roughly 12 months ago — which seems like a very long time to go without seeing the QB you’ve decided is your future play. What’s realistic in terms of expectations in 2025?
J.J. McCarthy and The Season Ahead
It goes back even further than that, though.
We haven’t seen him play meaningful football since January 8th of 2024. That’s one year and six months ago, or a year and a half for the math wizzes out there. Another historical event on January 8th was the Battle of New Orleans on January 8th, 1815, where Major General Andrew Jackson led his men as underdogs over the heavily-favored eight-thousand man British Army.
Soon, the QB will need to lead his teammates into battle.
Since it’s been a while, the hype for the hopeful savior (in a non-religious sense) of the Minnesota Vikings franchise has maybe skewed some of what we believe about the QB that we think J.J. McCarthy is. And it might be less “thinking” who he is, and more of “hoping” he is who we think he is.
As an apologist for the former Wolverine, I found myself re-reading the draft profile we’re going to cover in this piece in horror upon stumbling into the remembrance that McCarthy isn’t necessarily reminiscent of the Patrick Mahomes that I made him in my mind.
That draft profile that I mentioned is one by Derrik Klassen of Reception Perception, a site founded by widely-respected football mind Matt Harmon. Mr. Klassen handles the QB profiles on the site, as well as hosting “QB Klass” on RP’s YouTube channel. Let’s just say, as a whole, the profile didn’t back up a ton of my confidence in the hopes that the sophomore is the QB that the Minnesota Vikings franchise has been looking for since Fran Tarkenton, but it didn’t crush those hopes, either.
Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) is pursued by Ohio State Buckeyes defensive tackle Tyleik Williams (91) during the first half of Saturday’s NCAA Division I football game at Michigan Stadium.
The literal first words of the article call J.J. McCarthy the 2024 NFL Draft QB Rorschach Test. If you don’t know what that is, yes you do. It’s the psychological evaluation where they hold up the pieces of paper with random-looking inkblots all over it and ask the patient to describe what they see.
So, basically, this is implying that J.J. McCarthy is pretty much whoever the beholder believes he is, and Vikings fans (including myself) have already made up their mind.
Let’s dive into some specifics, starting with the passer’s success (or lack thereof) on throws between 1-20 yards downfield:
McCarthy’s 71.4% adjusted accuracy rate is nothing of note. It’s virtually the same as Bryce Young a year ago and a hair better than Caleb Williams this year. Far from great, but not concerning. McCarthy’s accuracy profile does get dicier the more you dig in, though. For one, McCarthy’s heat map is concerning. There’s more red than green in the 1-20 yard sections. That’s never a good sign. The only area McCarthy graded above average in that range is to the right side between 11-20 yards, which tracks with his film. Michigan ran a ton of Sail and Smash concepts to that side. McCarthy often bailed to his right when throwing on the run, too. It makes sense that McCarthy would be better there than anywhere else in the 1-20 yard section of the field.
Klassen does follow that by praising McCarthy’s “automatic” connections with receivers on seam routes and post routes between the numbers (middle of the field). However, the criticism continued:
Aside from not producing an above-average success rate on any real route, McCarthy failed a couple arm talent tests. McCarthy’s 52.8% success rate on out routes is abysmal. His 36.1% success rate on nine routes also comes in a hair below average. McCarthy did well on all those sail and corner routes in Michigan’s offense but being successful on just one of the three core outside-the-numbers routes is worth worrying about. Posting a concerning 40.3% success rate on tight window throws, McCarthy struggled to pin it on his targets when coverage was locked in. Not only is that 4% worse than the NFL average from last year’s sample but it’s worse than five of the six prospects I charted last year, Hendon Hooker being the exception. Caleb Williams, for reference, finished with a 47% success rate into tight windows. The issue with McCarthy outside the numbers and into tight windows is that he is a thrower who needs to use his entire body to spin the ball. He can put velocity on his throws, but it requires a lot of strain and his control suffers for it. Baker Mayfield is the best example of that in the NFL right now and definitely someone to think about as it relates to McCarthy’s range of outcomes.
A lot of concerning information, but man, I do love Baker Mayfield.
Essentially, according to the data from Klassen and Reception Perception, McCarthy is pretty shaky when throwing outside of the numbers, which is something that someone who watched a good amount of film on the draft’s QBs noticed. To contrast it, his strength in the air was definitely towards the middle of the field, as evidenced by his success rates of 80.7% on throws of 1-10 yards and 65.4% on throws of 20+ yards downfield between the numbers. If you’ve watched Vikings football in the last three years, you know Kevin O’Connell loves QBs who attack the middle of the field, and McCarthy’s ability and fearlessness to do so was probably a good selling point on the kid for KOC.
Also via Reception Perception, the Vikings’ new QB1 was fine on throws of 11-20 yards to the outside-right of the field with a success rate of 73.3%, but in the same range on the outside-left, he was an abysmal 38.9% successful. He was also very much less than ideal on 20+ yard throws downfield to the left and right outsides of the hashes, with a 42.1% to the left and 37.5% to the right. This doesn’t look too good next to the QB who was drafted the pick after McCarthy, Bo Nix, whom had a 64.7% success rate throwing 20+ yards downfield to the left of the hashes and 50% in the same distance to the right.
If you want to dig deeper into comparing the 2024 seasons of Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy in a more “zoomed out” approach, Nix also out-performed McCarthy in both success rates throwing against man coverage (65.8% to 52%), zone coverage (76.7% to 74.2%), as well as total adjusted accuracy (74.9% to 71.4%), per Reception Perception.
Am I saying I’d rather the Vikings have drafted Bo Nix? No, absolutely not. The allure of McCarthy is his young age (he’s still only 22) and the tools he possesses for a QB mind of the likes of Kevin O’Connell.
Before I started crying recapping this draft profile (thankfully), the praise from Mr. Klassen began, and hope for the future of the Twin Cities was restored (but not completely until the Kirill Kaprizov extension finally gets announced).
Toughness and pocket ability is a major selling point for McCarthy. Whether there’s a free rusher or the pocket is collapsing, McCarthy is fearless under pressure. He doesn’t mind taking a shot for the good of the team. His own well-being comes second to making a sweet throw. McCarthy is twitched-up, too. He’s not a “sneaky” athlete, McCarthy straight up has real bounce to him and it allows him to fly out of the pocket in a hurry. Better yet, McCarthy can spin it when he’s on the move. McCarthy doesn’t lose velocity or accuracy when he’s on the move at all. Some of McCarthy’s best throws are when he’s fooling around on the run. McCarthy has combined all of those traits to produce well when things aren’t perfect. McCarthy’s 64.2% success rate under pressure is sensational. Similarly, McCarthy was successful on 70.4% of his unchartable routes, a.k.a scramble drills. McCarthy was even better on throws outside the pocket in general, notching a 71.2% success rate. The “chaos” areas being McCarthy’s strengths kind of tracks with who he is as a prospect. A 21-year-old who was not asked to drop back a ton at Michigan, McCarthy is more flash than substance. There are nice throws in structure, sure, but the sell with McCarthy is what his best moments look like. The flashes of high-end throws from the pocket, the creativity on the run, the toughness under duress — everything with McCarthy is about harnessing bits and pieces of greatness into a more consistent product.
The draft profile was finished off with the conclusion that Mr. Klassen believed McCarthy was a “top-50 pick” but was “comfortably” a tier below the likes of Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. The opinion of him just being a “top-50 pick” may seem crazy, but we have to remember that the Michigan quarterback was a late riser in the draft process. This draft profile was written on February 28th of 2024, and it wasn’t long before that that most mock drafters all pretty much agreed that McCarthy was going to be taken in the second round, late-first at the earliest.
I don’t like being the guy that’s all “aw, I was first on this guy” because I wasn’t, but I was very early on the McCarthy train before I saw Vikings fans liking him. The reason was because it seemed more and more like the Vikings were going to draft him — or the major faces of Vikings online media telling them that they should.
Remember this if reading the profile has discouraged you: J.J. McCarthy wasn’t drafted by the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, or any other team that will just never seem to get it right. He was drafted by the Minnesota Vikings, and it was a good situation when he got here in 2024. Now, that situation is even better.
Robert Scheer/IndyStar-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
We were excited because we thought the sophomore would be able to succeed with last year’s version of the team. No, most of us didn’t predict the 14-3 Sam Darnold run that ensued, but most of us planted a flag on the hill of 7 to 9 wins and the rookie making it obvious that he was the guy for the State of Minnesota and those that root for its football team.
As mentioned, that team ended up going 14-3 with Darnold. No, I’m not implying that McCarthy would’ve done what Darnold did anyway, but what I am presenting is the fact that this football team got even better than the team that made it within four quarters of the #1 seed in the NFC in 2024. Instead of the offensive line with a questionable interior, McCarthy will have Ryan Kelly, Donovan Jackson, and Will Fries in front of him between Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill.
The receiving corps is also deeper than it was last year. Instead of Jalen Nailor, Trent Sherfield, and Brandon Powell being the options behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, it’s Nailor, Rondale Moore, and Tai Felton. McCarthy will also have the services of T.J. Hockenson at his disposal for the entire year of 2025 (theoretically), as opposed to the 7 less games he would’ve had him for last season.
Plus, we all also know the improvement to the already intimidating Brian Flores defense with the additions of Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. It’s an interior line the Vikings certainly didn’t have last season.
Another difference between now and leading up to J.J. McCarthy’s rookie season is the fact that Kevin O’Connell is an NFL Coach of the Year.
All considerations have been taken into account. After testing, J.J. McCarthy, you ARE the starter.
