JJ McCarthy Has Been Awful at a Specific Component of the Vikings’ Offense
Once upon a time, Kirk Cousins was an assassin working off of play action. Not so with JJ McCarthy.
At present, things are so bleak with McCarthy that Minnesota’s head coach has had to begin fending off benching questions. At least part of the problem rests in the inability to find explosive plays on play action. Worst yet, the bread-and-butter offensive concept isn’t even resulting in consistently positive moments, meaning the Kevin O’Connell offense can commonly be found walking with a limp.
JJ McCarthy is Stumbling on Play Action
Oftentimes, selling play action successfully means turning one’s back to the defense. Doing so comes at a cost. The quarterback isn’t capable of keeping his eyes downfield, temporarily losing sight of the receivers working their routes.
There is, however, a benefit that should arrive. When he makes it look like he’s handing the ball to his running back, McCarthy prompts the front seven to step up to make a tackle on the running play that’s actually a passing play. As a result, there should be more open room in the middle of the field. Or, quite possibly, there could be just a touch more time for a play to develop downfield.
But while play action is a basic part of football strategy, McCarthy is experiencing a pile of failure when his head coach leans on the run fake.
The basic numbers are ugly. JJ McCarthy has gone 15/30 on play action, working out to a 50% completion rate. There have been 128 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Add up all the work he has done and he gets a 44.9 passer rating — a horrendous assessment.
Non-play action isn’t too much better, though there has been more promise. He has gone 59/110 (53.6%) for 714 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. The passer rating comes in at 66.3. Still awful, but more promising than when operating out of play action.
Another detail to note is that McCarthy does better out of shotgun. Shotgun numbers: 43/79 (54.4%), 560 yards, 5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions. Under center numbers: 31/61 (50.8%), 282 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 interceptions.
With all of that in mind, consider the interception on the intermediate pass targeting Justin Jefferson (pair of clips above showing the play).
Kevin O’Connell does a nice job with the design. The head coach blends play action with shotgun, trying to solve the issue of McCarthy losing sight of the field while still getting the benefit of a defense that steps forward. Note, as well, that Minnesota is in max protection, leaning on seven players to keep McCarthy upright.
Meanwhile, Jordan Addison is working deep while Jefferson gets layered in in the intermediate. For good measure, C.J. Ham comes down low to function as the safety valve. Essentially, McCarthy can work through an easy 1-2-3 progression that begins deep, drops to medium, and then goes shallow. All while selling the run before getting protected by seven.
Will Fries, the well-paid “tree stump,” needs to offer better protection. McCarthy getting hit in the legs didn’t help on the INT since the quarterback couldn’t get fully behind his throw. Even still, the 1st & 10 throw should have been directed toward Ham, the wide open veteran who could have scampered for positive yardage.
In targeting Jefferson, JJ McCarthy opted for an option where he needed to be precise while putting first-rate velocity on the ball. Anything less leads to trouble since we’re talking about the football needing to travel a great distance, allowing defenders more time to undercut the ball.
Go ahead and re-watch the clip from Next Gen Stats. Kevin Byard, #31, comes forward quite a lot due to play action. But then the throw is late and wobbly, allowing the veteran safety to come up with the play. The advantage gained with the fake was erased by a hit-passer who couldn’t get enough mustard on his pass.
Currently, JJ McCarthy is taking a lot of heat (some deserved, some not). Minnesota has essentially no chance of making the playoffs; the main reason why is due to the quarterbacks playing so poorly. Not being able to lean on a straightforward, seemingly advantageous strategy such as play action is a major reason why.
McCarthy, 22, goes on the road in Week 12. The Vikings will play the Packers at Lambeau.
