What Should Vikings Fans Expect of J.J. McCarthy?
As usual, the national media is sleeping on the Vikings, neglecting their 14-3 season and assuming they’ll take a big step backward with inexperienced QB J.J. McCarthy taking over the team in his second season with the franchise.
As usual, Vikings fans have declared this to be The Year, with polls suggesting that most are extremely excited to have McCarthy starting at QB, allowing them to finally see their first-round investment on the field.
What Should Vikings Fans Expect of J.J. McCarthy?
The most likely outcome is probably somewhere between these extremes. The Vikings have made some major upgrades this season, addressing some of the biggest roster flaws, and they were already one of the strongest teams in the NFC in 2024.
But at the same time, the QB position remains a bit of a question mark. In light of his poor performance against the Lions and Rams in the biggest games of the season, it’s easy to forget just how good Sam Darnold was this past season. It is extremely rare for a first-year QB to play as well as Darnold did in 2024.
Indeed, Darnold’s passer rating and QBR this season topped even C.J. Stroud’s numbers in his phenomenal, widely publicized rookie campaign in 2023. It is unlikely that McCarthy will be able to reproduce Darnold’s recent success in Minnesota, especially in his first year.
The good news is the Vikings’ front office and coaching staff are well aware of these QB data, yet they’ve nonetheless decided to go with McCarthy over Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, or a handful of other options for their QB1.
At this point, you and I have very little on which to base our opinion of McCarthy—a handful of preseason pass attempts and some college tape—but the Vikings have weeks of on-field training and months of off-field discussions through which to evaluate the young QB. If they think he’s ready, that’s a very good sign.
All this means that McCarthy is far from a sure thing, but he’s also more likely to succeed than a typical rookie QB. And with one of the best situations of any first-time passer—elite receiving weapons and tackles, a revamped interior offensive line, and a QB specialist for a head coach—McCarthy may just have what he needs to make my initial reservations look foolish.
The Vikings’ Absolute Best Option to be the Main Backup Quarterback in 2025