Is the Brian Flores Defense Due for Regression?
New head coaches and offensive/defensive coordinators are often hired after their predecessor has been released due to poor performance. In a perfect world, the replacement will inject new life into the team and turn a woeful team into a top unit. In reality, of course, a coach can only do so much, and a complete turnaround is rare.
Vikings’ defensive coordinator Brian Flores has accomplished this rare feat not once, but twice. Before Flores took over the Miami Dolphins, their defense ranked 27th in points allowed, and the team as a whole went 7-9. By the second season under Flores, however, the defense had improved drastically, ranking 6th in 2020 en route to a 10-6 record.
As a DC in Minnesota, Flores has repeated his remarkable success. After inheriting a 29th-ranked defense in 2022, Flores has brought the Vikings defense up to 14th in 2023 and 5th in 2024: a level of defensive success not seen in Minnesota since the prime years of Mike Zimmer circa 2017.
Yet, it is well-known that Flores’s success in Miami was short-lived. In 2021, the Dolphins went 9-8, and the defense regressed to 16th in the league. Flores was fired at the end of the season.
This begs the question: Is the Vikings’ defense bound for regression in year three of Brian Flores?
Without getting into the particulars of the Vikings’ defense, the most likely answer to this question is “yes.” Defense is not especially stable from year to year in the NFL, so it’s reasonable to expect that, on average, top-tier defenses and bottom-tier defenses will both regress towards the mean. The fact that the Vikings’ defense was quite a bit worse in 2023 than they were in 2024 further suggests that 2024 may have represented an upward statistical fluctuation that may be difficult to replicate.
Additionally, the Vikings’ defensive prowess in 2024 was built largely on their ability to generate turnovers. The team ranked just 16th in yards allowed on defense, but they led the league in turnovers. The ability to generate turnovers is a repeatable skill, but it is not quite as stable as yards allowed, which again points toward regression.
From a personnel perspective, it’s unclear whether the Vikings’ defense got better or worse this offseason. They lost Pro Bowl-caliber safety Cam Bynum but spent big on the defensive line. They lost some competent aging cornerbacks, yet added younger corners with potentially more upside. They will also get CB Mekhi Blackmon back from injury.
Flores’s last season in Miami was a tale of two halves. In the first half of the season, the Dolphins lost seven consecutive games en route to a 1-7 record. Several analysts and fans tried to put their finger on the reason for their defensive collapse, but there was no single obvious explanation: the defense was simply bad in all facets of the game.
But the 2021 Dolphins turned it around in the second half, going 8-1 in their final nine games and leading the league in defensive EPA/play (by a considerable margin) in that time. In short, Flores demonstrated an ability to adjust mid-season after an ignominious start.
If they want to compete for a Super Bowl this season, the Vikings will likely need Flores to make midseason adjustments again…and faster than he did in 2021 in Miami. The stats suggest the Vikings’ defense is due for a bit of regression, and it’s up to Flores to overcome it with improvements in scheme and strategy.