After the Bad News, The Vikings Now Face a Litmus Test on 1 Player
Many thought that Harrison Smith would be capable of playing on Monday Night Football. That assumption has proven to be false.
To begin his fourteenth NFL season, Smith will be inactive. The Vikings will now be even more shorthanded within a secondary that was already confronting concerns about both the high-level talent and depth (or lack thereof in both areas). Someone is going to need to step up. Figuring out who gets leaned on may tell us quite a bit.
The Vikings Face a Litmus Test on Jay Ward
Over and over again, the NFL reminds onlookers of a central, basic truth: actions speak louder than words. Brian Flores’ lineup decisions are going to tell us quite a bit.
Jay Ward has been buried behind safety talent aplenty since getting drafted, but that’s no longer the case for Week 1. Gone is Camryn Bynum, dancing his way into the hearts of Colts fans as he intercepts the AFC’s passers. Removing both of Bynum and Smith — if only for a week — means that the safety position is ultra thin.
Over the weekend, Janik Eckardt explored what a Smith absence could involve.
Consider one assessment of the ripple effect of losing Smith and Ward’s potential role: “Ward is just logically the next man up in that situation. Now, it’s far from guaranteed that Flores will actually turn to him. Veteran Tavierre Thomas has played in the league before, primarily as a slot corner. He’s listed as a safety on Minnesota’s official roster. Moving Metellus to full-time safety for a game or two could also be an option, much like eliminating any three-safety plays.”
Jay Ward, 25, began his NFL career in 2023. He got drafted in the 4th of the 2023 NFL Draft, becoming a Viking courtesy of the No. 134 pick. Standing at 6’1″ and weighing 188 pounds, Ward’s build lends itself well to being an NFL defensive back, especially when we recall that he was praised for his versatility in discussions surrounding that draft (a coveted ability at TCO).
But then reality has hit. Ward hasn’t yet proven to be an NFL-level defender, picking up just 63 snaps while earning zero starts. In contrast, Ward has gotten in on 616 special teams plays for Matt Daniels.
At least part of the reason for Jay Ward’s modest start to his career is because of the safety room. All of Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum, Josh Metellus, and Theo Jackson were ahead of him. Going into Week 1, there’s just Josh Metellus and Theo Jackson.
The first and most obvious move when Flores opts to deploy nickel personnel is to insert a trio of corners — Bryon Murphy Jr., Isaiah Rodgers, and Jeff Okudah — rather than the big nickel look, one that leans on a trio of safeties. Is that the simple solution? If so, then that does tell us something.
Full trust in Ward would mean continuing to lean on the three-safety look, one that allows Flores to balance run defense and pass coverage. Opting instead for a disproportionate reliance on a trio of corners would be a hit to the future outlook for Ward since there would be a suggestion that the third-year safety isn’t a plug-and-play replacement.
And then there’s the reality that would hit especially hard if Flores does lean on a trio of safeties. As Eckardt mentions, there’s the possibility of Tavierre Thomas. The veteran has his appeal. Do note, though, that we’re considering a journeyman who is now on his fifth NFL team and who is playing on a single-season, $2 million deal. Nothing to scoff at, but not the second coming of Paul Krause.
Other options exist on the practice squad: Kahlef Hailassie and K’Von Wallace. Seeing either get worked into the defense ahead of Jay Ward would be a pretty discouraging development for the draft pick who has seen his NFL career perfectly align with Brian Flores’ time as the Vikings’ defensive coordinator.
If, in the end, Jay Ward proves to be a special teams player and nothing more, then that’s fine. Drafting a defensive back on Day 3 often leads to being a backup on defense and a stalwart on specials. That singular outcome isn’t any reason to get too worked up.
The context in Minnesota, however, does make things a bit more discouraging.
Currently, the Vikings have just four players on their roster from the sixteen who were drafted in 2022 and 2023: running back Ty Chandler, wide receiver Jalen Nailor, wide receiver Jordan Addison, and safety Jay Ward. Only Addison could be deemed a really strong pick, though that’s currently muted due to his suspension. There’s then the pretty good result in Nailor ascending to becoming the WR3/4 and the frustrating inability for Chandler to turn abundant talent into proportional impact.
Finally, there’s Mr. Ward. Still under contract for two more seasons, Ward could yet have some ability in his game. Seeing him minimized rather than showcased when the safety room is suddenly thin will tell us a lot about the way things are trending.
Kickoff is tonight at 7:15 p.m. CT.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
