By Necessity, 1 Vikings Wide Receiver Needs to Get Demoted. Who is it Going to Be?
Justin Jefferson’s job is secure. Of that there is no doubt.
A Vikings wide receiver is going to get demoted in Week 4; it’s not going to be Jefferson, so who is it going to be? Jordan Addison is coming out of his suspension. Inserting Addison back into the offense is a major deal, the kind of move that can balance the field. Is it Adam Thielen or Jalen Nailor who gets bumped down?
A Vikings Wide Receiver is Going to Drop Down Depth Chart
Shrink things down to just the basic stats and things are clear: Mr. Nailor should remain in the lineup.
In three games, Nailor is sitting on 13 targets. He has turned those opportunities into 7 catches for 96 scoreless yards. Boosting confidence in Nailor is that J.J. McCarthy missed Speedy in Week 2 on a wide open slot fade. Completing that pass would have been an eighth catch while very comfortably pushing the receiver well past 100 yards. Plus, the end result could have very reasonably been a touchdown.
Meanwhile, Adam Thielen has been a disappointment.
The veteran is sitting on just 6 targets. These chances have gone for 2 catches for 26 yards. He did score a 2-point conversion in Week 1, a play that isn’t showing up in the traditional statistics. Safe to say, though, that his contributions have been modest after Minnesota forfeited a medium amount of draft capital to get him.
Most discouraging of all, perhaps, is that Thielen hasn’t been automatic when making the catch. Max Brosmer’s first NFL pass was a fastball directly into Thielen’s chest. The ball should have been caught but the UDFA-to-UDFA connection was undermined by the receiver dropping the ball.
If Thielen isn’t someone who is a 99.99% certainty of catching the ball, can he maintain his spot in the lineup? If so, what will he offer the team’s offense? A desire for speed — the kind of threat that can inspire nightmares in a deep safety — can mostly be fulfilled by Nailor, not Thielen. So, where do the Vikings go?
For starters, consider a broader reality: the Vikings will be looking beyond just the basic stats to determine who gets the WR3 job. And, in fact, different weeks could lead to a different WR3. Some opponents could be more susceptible to Adam Thielen’s skills; other opponents may be more susceptible to Jalen Nailor’s skills.
The Vikings get the luxury of making that assessment before then deciding on the best plan of attack.
Consider, too, how Kevin O’Connell dug into the issue at his presser on Monday. The head coach is relentlessly optimistic. O’Connell didn’t disappoint in his assessment of where things are heading at receiver: “Jalen Nailor’s been consistently on tape one of the guys that pops off the tape. I think Adam Thielen, although the targets and the reception numbers might not be there, he has been wildly impactful in my mind.” There’s then a quick turn to praising Thielen for his blocking while mentioning Carson Wentz almost hitting the veteran for an explosive score.
In fact, Kevin O’Connell clarifies how he sees things with Addison back in the mix: “The way I look at it is with [Addison] back, we really have four starters.” There’s a commitment to “keep people fresh” while rotating receivers, the coach further explains.
Step back to gather all of these thoughts and ideas.
In Week 4, the Vikings wide receivers are going to be led by a formidable pair: Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Combined, the top twosome is possibly the most dangerous duo in the NFL.
The Vikings can also distribute the ball to running back Aaron Jones (when healthy) and tight end T.J. Hockenson, both of whom are adept pass catchers at their respective positions. The Vikings therefore proceed with four excellent pass catchers who justifiably demand a hearty helping of targets.
The summary should point us toward an idea: whoever slots into the WR3 job needs to offer something unique. Maybe that means being a tremendous deep threat. Maybe that means bulldozing defensive backs as a blocker. Maybe that means being savvy at finding soft spots in zone coverage. And so on.
Moving forward, the Vikings are going to roll with a loaded receiver position from within what is a loaded offense. Who slots into the WR3 job is a fascinating question that may receive different answers at different points in the season.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
