Clarifying The Vikings’ Playoff Path After Dropping Down to 4-5
The Vikings’ playoff path is working toward a discouraging scenario: needing other teams to fail to get into the final tournament.
In theory, every team enters the season with complete control of its playoff destiny. Simply win the weekly game and the team will guarantee a spot in the playoffs. Sounds simple. And, indeed, there is an elegant clarity within that framework: just pull off the victories and the outcome will be favorable.
Losing means an individual team’s agency gets incinerated.
At 4-5, Minnesota has several teams ahead of it in the NFC. Overcoming those teams means stacking wins while also seeing the other teams lose. Sometimes, those twin goals walk in unison, such as when Minnesota takes on the NFC North leading Chicago Bears, a 6-3 football team. Gaining these direct wins within the head-to-head battles is what it’s all about for the Vikings moving forward.
The Vikings’ Playoff Path After Dipping Below .500
The prophets and prognosticators aren’t optimistic. There’s ESPN putting things at 8% and The Athletic putting things at 11%. Presumably, other spots offer a similar range.
So, less than ideal.
Minnesota’s response needs to involve greater effort from Justin Jefferson, becoming a team that somehow commits itself to the run, and then giving the defense a better shot at success. But while all of these strategic moves have some merit (which is to say nothing of the many more options to arrive at improvement), the Vikings simply need to see the ball get in the basket. Or, put differently, start picking up wins no matter how it gets done.
Consider how things look currently in the NFC North:
- Chicago Bears: 6-3
- Detroit Lions: 6-3
- Green Bay Packers: 5-3-1
- Minnesota Vikings: 4-5
Placed side by side, the 6-3 Bears appear to be ahead of the 4-5 Vikings by a beefy margin. Consider the impact that just a single game can have, though. Look at where the standings would be if the Vikings win in Week 11:
- Detroit Lions: 7-3
- Green Bay Packers: 6-3-1
- Chicago Bears: 6-4
- Minnesota Vikings: 5-5
The above-listed scenario is perfectly plausible. The Vikings take down the Bears, shrinking the difference to just a single game between what would become a 6-4 team and a 5-5 team. The Lions (playing the Eagles) and Packers (playing the Giants) each earn wins, pushing them up the division.
The reality that’s yet to arrive, though, is a Week 12 Packers game, a Week 17 Lions game, and a Week 18 Packers game. Going a pristine 6-0 in the NFC North isn’t likely, but it is still in front of a Vikings team that’s sitting at 2-0.
More broadly, the NFC may have too many good-to-great teams to overcome for a Wild Card spot. The Eagles, Rams, and Seahawks are all 7-2. The Buccaneers are 6-3 while the 49ers sit at 6-4. Those are five teams that would need to be overcome. Plus, the 5-5 Panthers are ahead of Minnesota.
Kevin O’Connell may be best served by running amok on his division, securing at least a single home playoff game in the process. Unleashing four more wins on the NFC North would mean pushing the win total up to a minimum of 8.
Very likely, there would then need to be at least two more wins from among the Week 13 Seahawks game, Week 14 Commanders game, Week 15 Cowboys game, and Week 16 Giants game to have a shot the NFC North. Better yet, secure three wins to push the record to 11-6 while waltzing into the playoffs scorching hot.
The Vikings’ offense is coming in at 21st in the NFL by scoring an average of 22.3 points per game. The Vikings’ defense is coming in at 18th by averaging 23.7 points against per game. At the risk of being a touch too obvious, the Vikings may be wise to address the issue of scoring less than their opponents.
The Vikings’ playoff path won’t be easy, but Kevin O’Connell’s best bet could involve taking aim at the NFC North.
