Jordan Addison Improved Greatly in Several Areas in 2024
Jordan Addison’s basic metrics (catches, yards, and touchdown receptions) may have gone down a little bit in 2024 from his rookie season in 2023, but it’s not a big deal. He only played 15 games last season as compared to his rookie campaign.
Jordan Addison in 2023: 70 receptions on 108 targets, 911 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns.
Jordan Addison in 2024: 63 receptions on 99 targets, 875 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns.
Pretty easy to see that Addison likely would’ve bested almost every basic metric he put up in his rookie year last year. Either way, there are a handful of advanced metrics that Jordan Addison improved on big time between 2023 and 2024.
Jordan Addison Improved Against Man and Press Coverage
Per Reception Perception, Jordan Addison improved against man and press coverages in 2024 as compared to 2024, a very important development for a receiver of smaller stature who struggles against them that gets asked to play a decent amount of X-receiver.
Here it is from Matt Harmon himself, the founder of Reception Perception:
While Addison’s success rate vs. zone coverage was in the same neighborhood of his rookie season, he made significant strides against man and press. He jumped from 63% success rate vs. man to a strong 70.9% in Year 2 and went from a poor 51.5% success rate vs. press up to a respectable 66%. Addison still isn’t a perfect separator and can get stuck at the break point of routes a little too often but that type of improvement is something we love to see. You can hold down a long-time starting gig as an outside receiver if you hover around a 70.9% success rate vs. man coverage.
Harmon does go on to address that Addison’s 66% success rate against press coverage is indeed a large improvement, it is still considered below-average of an NFL receiver. He does detail that because of his “frame and lack of elite burst” that Jordan will likely always struggle against man-press, but his favorable situation where he is schemed open and sent in a lot of motion in Kevin O’Connell’s offense allows him to often be schemed out of those situations.
Still, a jump of 7.9% in success rate against man and a 14.5% increase against press coverage and huge improvements in only one season, especially when the first season of comparison was the man’s rookie year.
Jordan Addison Improved in Contested-Catch Opportunities
Hear from Mr. Harmon again when referencing Jordan Addison’s improvement in contested-catch situations:
Another big area of improvement for Addison in his second season came at the catch point. He dropped just one pass overall in this sample but more importantly, he was excellent in tight coverage. Addison saw a contested target on just 13.6% of his sampled looks but won 87.5% of them. He checked in at 50% in his rookie season, so that was a big jump.
It was closer to his 78% contested catch rate from his prospect profile. Addison clearly put in the work to get stronger at the catch point and he rarely let defensive backs disrupt his timing. He had vice grips in 2024 and was just one of the best catchers of the football, regardless of the situation.
Basically, Jordan Addison is really good at making sure he’s the one who comes down with the football when there’s a defender in the area. A jump in a metric like that of 37.5% is remarkable, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Addison never met that mark again. That’s not to discredit, but a mark like that out of a receiver with the frame like his is highly impressive.
Does Addison Rank Among the NFL’s Best WR2s?
Mr. Harmon and I agree in this regard (to be fair, there isn’t much I disagree with him about, and I also said this a whole year ago), in that Jordan Addison shouldn’t yet be considered in the top tier of the league’s WR2s. A lot of Vikings fans last off-season claimed him to possibly be a “WR1b” to Justin Jefferson’s “WR1a”, but all due respect to Mr. Addison, Justin Jefferson is in a different league than being considered another WR1 next to someone. There are only two or three other WRs that would be considered a “WR1b” alongside Jefferson, and none of them play on the Vikings.
That’s not to say Jordan Addison is just another replaceable WR, he’s a tier or two above that for sure. Still, as Matt Harmon puts it: “There are still some limitations in his game that keep me from ranking him among the next No. 2 wide receivers in the league. There’s a step down from the DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins types of the world to where Addison ranks in that cohort.“
Jordan Addison into 2025 and Beyond
Legal concerns aside, Vikings fans shouldn’t expect Addison’s production to drop off too much. He can be a quality WR2 for a long time, and potentially even develop into that top tier of WR2s in the next year or two. It’s hard to say if he will remain averaging 900 yards receiving per year, as McCarthy isn’t exactly the same kind of passing yard-churning QB that Kirk Cousins was or that Sam Darnold showed he can be at his best.
All in all, Addison took some huge steps in 2024, and there aren’t many reasons to think he won’t improve more, even if only slightly, as he heads into the first year of the Jonathan James McCarthy era.
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