Trade J.J. McCarthy for a 2025 Pick? An NFL Writer Thinks it’s the Best Option
There’s next to no chance the Vikings will trade J.J. McCarthy. Regardless, there’s speculation about that precise possibility.
On The Athletic, Michael Salfino gives voice to the argument. A key part of his piece rests in the insistence that real-world football and fantasy football join forces to point toward the best outcome for Minnesota: retain Sam Darnold while moving on from McCarthy. Doing so would be the best outcome in both aspects of football, according to Salfino.
The Argument to Trade J.J. McCarthy
Again, to reiterate: McCarthy isn’t going anywhere. He could be brought back as a backup for another season, but Minnesota is still going to be home for the former Michigan passer in 2025.
And, in fairness to Salfino, the argument was presented prior to the Week 18 effort from Mr. Darnold, which was the worst game of the year for Minnesota’s QB1. Maybe that extra bit of evidence would prompt the author to adjust his take a bit. The final stats for Darnold come out to a 14-3 record, 66.2% completion rate, 4,319 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Very comfortably QB1 numbers, both for real life and fantasy.
Meanwhile, McCarthy lost his 2024 season due to injury. Will he live up to his potential and be a franchise passer? Is there any reason to be concerned about further injury? The Vikings need to answer these questions behind the scenes.
Salfino makes his case: “From a fantasy perspective, the best possible outcome would be for the Vikings to maintain the sensational status quo and re-sign Darnold. And in the process, they should deal away McCarthy, scoring strong value in a 2025 draft short on top QB talent — and giving another QB-needy team an upgrade at a position that plagued them in 2024. If you dig into it, the fantasy world’s preference and the real-world assessment align.”
He goes on to discuss a financial possibility for keeping the current top passer: “Let’s look at the Vikings’ current options. What would you do? Keep Darnold on a franchise tag? The critics say that’s $50 million a year against the cap. For a short-term deal, yes. But if the Vikings believe in Darnold, they could sign him to a 5-year, $250-million contract.” The lengthier deal, Salfino notes, could result in lower cap hits in the immediate.
The issue for Salfino is that McCarthy is largely unknown. “Keeping McCarthy is seen as a cap bonanza,” Salfino writes, “but nobody cares about the cost if a quarterback is good; if he’s bad, nobody cares about the savings.”
There’s also the chance to snag a high pick in 2025 for McCarthy: “McCarthy might not make it in the NFL, but his chance is about as good as the top 2025 QB prospects. So he’s worth that much draft capital, which would be a top-10 pick. Would you rather have Darnold and a top-10 pick (acquired by trading McCarthy) or McCarthy and his cap savings? The Vikings are $70 million under the 2025 cap. I’m taking the high draft pick.”
Not too long afterwards, the author mentions the Titans, Giants, Jets, Raiders, Panthers, Browns, and Saints as potential teams who could make a move for McCarthy.
In reality, the Vikings’ likeliest option appears to be a QB room featuring McCarthy, Daniel Jones, and potentially Nick Mullens. That setup would offer a nice blend of youthful upside, veteran stability, and the chance to push a veteran — in this case, Jones — higher than previously thought possible.
Darnold walking away in free agency could very reasonably result in a 3rd-Round compensatory selection coming back to the Vikings. Even better, perhaps, would be a tag-and-trade scenario where Minnesota gets Darnold’s input for where he would like to go (Salfino thinks the tag-and-trade option is less than ideal). Prying away Darnold likely wouldn’t require a 1st — unless there’s a major bidding war behind the scenes — instead only requiring a Day 2 selection.
Of course, there’s still football left to played (the real kind, not fantasy). Seeing Darnold either sink or swim in the playoffs will go a long way in influencing what Minnesota’s main decision makers want to do.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter, as a co-host for Notes from the North, and as the proprietor at The Vikings Gazette, a humble Vikings Substack.