When J.J. McCarthy Talks to Santa Claus
Before too long, Santa Claus is going to take flight.
Yes, yes, I know: much remains ahead before the fateful day. Halloween (great holiday) and Thanksgiving (gobble gobble) stand out. The point can still be made. On Christmas Day, the Vikings will be participating in a game at U.S. Bank Stadium, hosting the Detroit Lions for a Week 17 battle. Just how good will J.J. McCarthy be by that point?
The J.J. McCarthy Christmas Gift
Ongoing development is the name of the game.
In theory, Mr. McCarthy should be a better ball player in Week 17 than he will be in Week 7 (his earliest possible return date). There will be a pile of games between the mid-October game and the late-December game, better equipping the sophomore to find success within the unusual holiday showdown. More specifically, what needs to occur?
For starters, there’s the completion percentage, which is an eyesore.
Completing less than 60% of passes in the modern NFL is very poor. Unsustainably so. The sophomore finds his completion percentage sitting at 58.5%, the kind of horrendous number that plagued Sam Darnold before achieving redemption in the Twin Cities.
A whopping thirty passers are coming in above the 60% threshold. Among those passers are the very humdrum options such as Tua Tagovailoa, Spencer Rattler, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Jake Browning, and, indeed, Carson Wentz.
So, getting above that very basic benchmark needs to be passed. Akin to clearing the mendoza line in baseball, rising above 60% passing is the way to go for Mr. McCarthy.
One then thinks of the football. As in, hold onto it.
It’s no coincidence, folks, that Wentz won the two games where he didn’t toss any interceptions. And then there’s the loss, a game where he tossed a pair of interceptions. Boiling things down to that single factor alone — interceptions — is too simple. There is, nevertheless, ample evidence to support the idea that holding onto the football is one of the critical factors in winning ball games.
The sophomore QB1 is working on getting back onto the field. Once there, maintaining possession of the football is huge. Vital, even. There’s no such thing as fully eliminating turnovers. Losing possession of the football is part of the sport. Crucially, the goal is to keep things very low along the way.
Toggling those two factors alone — improving the amount of completions while also possessing the ball as much as possible — would be a massively important development for Mr. McCarthy.
The key detail that functions as the premise of this piece: the 22-year-old quarterback doesn’t need to be perfect in Week 7. He is, after all, someone who is still growing.
Placing himself on the highway of progress as he travels toward becoming a franchise quarterback is the goal. Actually arriving at the destination is quite a different matter. Along the way, the young passer needs to get to certain checkpoints, proving to be someone who is showing growth, progress, and ongoing development.
Being fully there by Week 7, Week 8, or Week 9? No, not realistic. What may be more realistic is seeing a quarterback who is closer to that level of play at Week 17 or Week 18. Maybe there will even be someone who can thrive in the final tournament, pushing Minnesota toward the level of success that has so far eluded Kevin O’Connell.
Per O’Connell, J.J. McCarthy needs two things to get back onto the field: getting to 100% health and then getting 100% of the practice work leading into a start. If those two things arrive in Week 7, then the sophomore will be looking to take down the Eagles.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
