The Justin Jefferson Problem for J.J. McCarthy
Everyone — almost — knows that Justin Jefferson is the league’s preeminent receiver. In Minnesota, Mr. Jefferson is the clear top option, the most dangerous weapon from within a roster that isn’t lacking in talent.
How is that a problem?
Well, J.J. McCarthy is going to need to walk on a bit of a tightrope. Tossing the football to his best player is indisputably a wise thing to do in many scenarios. However, it’s not the wise thing to do in all scenarios. See the difference? There are times when the defense does take away the WR1, meaning the young arm needs to prove capable of moving off his top option as he progresses through his reads to find a better option.
Justin Jefferson, J.J. McCarthy, & The (Champagne) Problem
Shift things over to a different sport to clarify things a bit further.
There’s just enough time left on the clock for the Lakers to work down the court to attempt a game-tying 3-point shot. Putting the ball in LeBron James’ hands seems like a wise move since we’re talking about one of the best in the history of the sport. Imagine, though, that the defense sells out to slow down James, doubling him so that he can’t get a clean shot.
Does it make more sense for the all-time great to pass the ball to Luka Dončić who has a more open look? There’s a pretty reasonable argument in favor of making the extra pass to get a cleaner shot.
In football, something similar can occur — an ill-advised, forced shot — when a quarterback is determined to get the ball to his top receiver.
Locking onto Justin Jefferson can (at times) lead to problems. Knowing when to move off of Justin Jefferson to instead pass to Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, or Aaron Jones is akin to giving Luka a clean look.
Recently, Mr. McCarthy took some time to chat with the media at OTAs, expressing some thoughts that help to guide our thinking on the issue.
For starters, the simple reality is that McCarthy is now getting more work with Jefferson due to Sam Darnold being gone. Last year’s opportunities were relatively scarce, so the reps are “probably not as much as it is now.” There’s then an explanation of it being “extremely huge” to “get that chemistry building on and off the field.”
Later on, McCarthy gets into how he’s focusing on working through his progressions. Jefferson is going to be the top option for a lot of plays, but there are going to be times when he needs to move off of Jefferson. “I would say just the timing of everything,” McCarthy says when discussing the 7-on-7 portion of practice. “You can’t hold onto the ball too long. And just being able to time up things, and the rhythm of the scheme and the progression. And ultimately find completions. That’s the name of the game.”
Unpack that a little bit. McCarthy is getting more reps with Jefferson while acknowledging that there’s still room for improvement. He later clarifies that much of what he’s working on is his timing, knowing when to move off his top target to work through to the other reads in that particular play. Folks, every quarterback needs to rep those things, but that’s especially true of a young fella.
Remember that the Vikings have very intentionally built their roster in a particular manner. Yes, the McCarthy and Jefferson relationship is central — the cornerstone of the offense — but the point isn’t for that to be the sole option.
Rather, the point is for J.J. McCarthy to get a ton of help.
Consider, for instance, a very plausible scenario. Kevin O’Connell relays a play where Jefferson is to be the primary option. McCarthy gets to the line and sees that the defense is well positioned to make that play difficult. The sophomore can audible, instead handing off the ball to either of Aaron Jones or Jordan Mason with a quite a bit of confidence. By design, McCarthy does not need to force a doomed passing play, even one where Jefferson is the target.
Consider another example. The ball gets snapped and Jefferson is the first read. For one reason or another, Jefferson is well covered. Sometimes, it makes sense to still give the WR1 a shot (like the late-game Bills catch), but that’s going to be dependent on the situation. Maybe that particular moment doesn’t deserve the risk. Instead, McCarthy is supposed to be functioning in an offense where he can shift over to one of his other talented pass catchers.
Basically, put the defense in a no-win scenario, something that gets accomplished when multiple skill guys are doing damage.
J.J. McCarthy is going to look to Justin Jefferson early and often. There’s no mystery in stating as much. A lingering question, however, rests in whether the kid will force the ball to Jefferson. If so, then there could be a bit of a problem.
Last season, the Vikings’ top receiver had 103 catches go for 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns. Seeing a repeat of those numbers would be a positive development for both the present and future of the Minnesota Vikings.
The goal is simply that McCarthy doesn’t push Jefferson toward those numbers by forcing things.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and Bluesky (@VikingsGazette). If you feel so inclined, subscribe to his Substack, The Vikings Gazette, for more great Vikings content.
