Could the Vikings Turn to the Draft for a Backup QB?
Three weeks into free agency, the Vikings still do not have a clear plan for a QB2 behind J.J. McCarthy.
A number of potential starting QB options were available this cycle, including Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson, but the Vikings seem to be happy to roll into 2025 with McCarthy as their QB1.
There has subsequently been speculation over backup options like Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill, but as the days pass and the list of competent QBs dwindles, a third possibility must be considered: could the Vikings turn to the NFL draft for a QB2?
Analytics models tend to support the strategy of “double dipping” on QBs, taking as many shots as possible at the most valuable position on the field. To some extent, the logic is sensible: even QBs taken in the lower first/second round have the potential to become elite players (see, e.g., Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees), and an elite QB is the closest you’ll get to a guarantee of consistent Super Bowl contention.
Even a mid-round QB prospect has a higher ceiling than a veteran backup like Flacco or Tannehill.
The problem with these simple analytics models, however, is that they ignore the influence of team and situation on the outcome of a draft pick.
A player who might otherwise turn into a great QB might be stifled by a lack of opportunity to work with the first-team offense, and consequently, the success of a QB1 and QB2 are often mutually exclusive. At the least, a rookie QB2 would be unable to provide the sort of mentorship for McCarthy that a more experienced veteran could.
That said, there is precedent for success with such a strategy. Washington double-dipped at QB in 2012 with Robert Griffin III in the first round and Kirk Cousins in the 4th. In the end, the former’s career was beset by injuries and inconsistent performance, while the former went on to a long and generally successful career as a starting QB.
Thus, while turning to the draft for a backup QB is probably not the ideal scenario, it may be an option for the Vikings to consider, depending on who is available in the draft and free agency. GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has proven to be incredibly difficult to predict on draft day, and an unexpected gamble on another QB prospect seems like a fitting continuation of the trend.
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