Vikings Vision: How Minnesota Can Improve To 9-2
No one saw an 8-2 start coming, not even fans of the team themselves, for the Minnesota Vikings this season. Yet, here they are 11 weeks into their 2024 campaign with a 96% chance to make the postseason and an 11% chance to appear in the Super Bowl, per ESPN’s Playoff Probability machine.
The Vikings look ahead to Week 12, where they get their first-ever look at the 2024 NFL Draft’s first overall pick, QB Caleb Williams. Chicago is in a weird spot, a complex cumulation of both optimism and skepticism about the current regime. The skepticism is aimed towards the sidelines, as HC Matt Eberflus hasn’t exactly convinced anyone that he’s the guy to lead the long haul for these Bears, and the fact that Chicago let go of OC Shane Waldron ahead of their Week 11 bout against the Packers.
In a way, the skepticism is bred from the optimism for GM Ryan Poles, as well as the on-field talent the Bears possess, which is why some heads get scratched when trying to understand how Matt Eberflus is so inspiring as a head coach. With playmakers like D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Deandre Swift, and Caleb Williams, as well as a stout defense, it’s understandable why the Chicago faithful are growing louder and louder about their desire to oust Eberflus.
Either way, Matt Eberflus will be the head coach of the team when those playmakers and that defense take the field on Sunday at Soldier Field against a hot 8-2 Vikings team. At 4-6, Chicago has definitely been less than perfect, so how can these Vikings tranquilize the Bears?
Attack Chicago’s Rushing Defense
Minnesota’s rushing offense has been lackluster over the last month, failing to achieve at least 4.0 YPC in three of their last four contests. This week is a big opportunity for a running game that got off to a hot start in 2025 to return to form.
Per NFL Pro’s advanced data and analytics, the Bears’ rushing defense has struggled mightily this year. Chicago allows 130.3 YPG on the ground (23rd in the NFL) and 4.8 YPC (26th in the NFL). Digging deeper, their EPA/Rush allowed is -0.03 (20th in NFL), 1.71 yards before contact per attempt (24th in NFL), and +162 rushing yards over expected (26th in NFL).
If there were ever a week for the three-headed monster of running backs in Aaron Jones, Cam Akers, and Ty Chandler to cause chaos, it’s this week at Soldier Field.
Hound Caleb Williams
As Kirk Cousins famously said in 2018 before facing off against then-rookie QB Josh Rosen and the Arizona Cardinals: “I’ve been a rookie quarterback before! You can SUFFOCATE him! You can SUFFOCATE him! Make him miserable all game long; get us the ball back!”
Caleb Williams enters his first career game against the Minnesota Vikings having been sacked 41 times through ten games (most in NFL), pressured 150 times (3rd-most in NFL), and having only 2.86 seconds average time to throw per pass attempt (15th in NFL). Williams’ 61.8% completion percentage (31st in NFL) is also nothing to write home about.
With Williams being the most pressured QB in the NFL, it’s important to note that Brian Flores’ defense blitzes the opposing passer at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL at 39.1%. Interestingly enough, however, per NFL Pro, Minnesota has the 12th-lowest pressure rate when bringing extra rushers at 39.9%.
Also, interestingly, per an NFL Pro insight, the rookie QB out of USC has generated an EPA of +11.6 (18th in NFL) with 4 TDs and 0 INTs when having under 2.5 seconds to throw this season, compared to his -82.0 EPA, 0 TDs and 5 INTs when having over 2.5 seconds to throw (2nd-fewest in NFL). Taking that into account, the Vikings’ defense has allowed the fewest passing EPA (-18.1) and accumulated eight INTs on throws under 2.5 seconds this season, an NFL best in 2024.
Solve Bears’ Stingy Secondary
Led by 2023 Pro Bowler and Second-Team All-Pro CB Jaylon Johnson, the Chicago secondary has been bearing down on opposing passing games all season long. They have only allowed seven passing TDs in ten games (best in NFL), allow an EPA/Pass of -0.20 (3rd in NFL), and give up 197.4 YPG (9th in NFL).
This has been with not too much help from the Bears pass rush, though. Chicago has only generated a total of 115 QB pressures this season (23rd in the NFL), allowing 2.72 seconds per pass attempt in time to pressure (21st in the NFL) and 2.93 seconds in time to throw (30th in the NFL)
Chicago’s defense faces a Vikings offensive line that produces Sam Darnold 3.06 seconds time to throw per pass attempt (3rd in NFL), however, Darnold has gotten such clean pass blocking that eventually, pressures become inevitable, making him the 8th-highest pressured QB in the league with 124 pressures faced, as well as the 6th-most sacked QB with 28.
On the flip side of Darnold facing pressure by default of a lot of time to throw, he was very efficient against the Titans on dropbacks where he was given more than 2.5 seconds to throw. He completed 13 of his 19 passes in those situations, with a TD pass and a +8.0% CPOE.
In a not-so-shocking revelation, the Vikings need to make it paramount that Justin Jefferson gets going. Calling upon another NFL Pro insight, Jefferson has recorded a league-best 599 receiving yards against single-high safety coverage while averaging another league-best of 4.2 yards per route run while doing so. This is important to note since the Bears field single-high safety coverage 61.1% of the time (5th-highest in NFL), generating a defensive success rate of 59.3% (4th-highest in NFL) when doing so.
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