Vikings Kicker Quandary is Murky Even as Incumbent Finishes Season Perfectly
K. Joudry
|
Greg Joseph hasn’t missed a field goal since Week 14. Even more impressive is that he hasn’t missed a PAT since going 1/2 on PATs back in Week 7 against the 49ers.
So, not a bad place to end things for the 29-year-old South African.
The question now shifts to what Minnesota will opt to do at the pressure-packed position. Like a reliever coming out of the bullpen, an NFL kicker often enters the game in nerve-wracking situations. Joseph has risen to the challenge on numerous occasions over these past couple seasons, but his resumé isn’t flawless. Will Minnesota opt to bring him back?
The Vikings Kicker Quandary and Greg Joseph’s Minnesota Future
Securing Mr. Joseph’s services for 2023 involved Kwesi kicking over a 1-year, $2 million deal (sorry about the bad pun; the temptation was too much).
While playing on that deal, Greg Joseph converted on 24/30 field goals (80%) and on 36/38 of his point after attempts (94.7%). Both represent improvements over his 2022 performance when he went 26/33 on his field goals (78.8%) and 40/46 on his point after attempts (87%).
Bringing things back to an NFL level allows us to frame things a touch differently.
Joseph finished up the 2023 season as the 28th-most accurate field goal kicker. Or, put differently, among the least accurate of those considered within PFR’s rankings (33 total players qualified). More encouraging is the PAT percentage. Converting on 94.7% of his PATs means that Joseph is the 17th-best kicker with the extra point.
Joseph was responsible for 79 kickoffs. A total of 21.5% got brought back. On average, the returner picked up 23.5 yards and the average field position for the opponent was the 25.3 yard line. So, pretty tidy stats when it comes to kickoffs. Similar to long snapping, kickoffs only gets noticed when things start to get wonky. Seeing dull consistency is what every special teams coordinator wants in this aspect of the game.
Now, a brief word about statistics.
Considering a player’s past production is (obviously) fundamental in understanding whether he should be retained. The statistical analysis can hopefully allow for clarity regarding what kind of contract is appropriate for the player under consideration. However — don’t miss this — the stats are only helpful insofar as they help to predict the future.
Indeed, there’s essentially nothing about Joseph’s past production that matters in and of itself. The only benefit of the past rests in its capacity to help reveal the future.
Consider a rudimentary thought exercise. Player A was the NFL’s best kicker of the past decade but he’s going to play horrendous football from 2024 onward; Player B was very poor over the past decade but is going to become dominant from 2024 onward. Which one is the better add?
Most would be far more comfortable giving major money to Player A but Player B would, in reality, be the better signing. The future is all that matters in football. The past can teach, predict, and entertain but it can’t do anything to directly win an upcoming football game.
Bring things back around to Greg Joseph, whom Matt Daniels refers to as G-Money.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah can and should consider what his kicker did last season. What’s far more important, though, is what Joseph will do next season. In the season’s final weeks, Joseph offered near flawless kicking. Is that a harbinger of things to come for the veteran? If so, then a deal makes all the sense in the world.
Expect the Vikings and Greg Joseph to begin talking about a new contract before too long. The journeyman has found some stability in Minnesota; Minnesota has, in turn, found some stability at kicker.
And while a deal makes a lot of sense, the Vikings would nevertheless be very wise to add some strong competition during the offseason. Kicking is high pressure, so removing the pressure that comes from offseason competition is a foolish thing to do (Coach Joudry would ensure that every specialist is facing direct competition during every offseason).
A contract for one or two years and with an average of $2-$3 million wouldn’t be super surprising. Keep an eye on this one.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference, PFF, and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
Vikings’ 2024 NFL Draft Position Is Set in Stone
K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.