Vikings’ Defense Wasn’t the Sum of Its Parts in 2023
The Vikings’ defense was night and day better in 2023 under Brian Flores in his first year in charge of the unit as opposed to the hyper-frustrating 2022 defense under Ed Donatell.
It’s important to note that maybe our view of the 2023 defense will be a little rose-tinted after just how abysmal the 2022 defense was, but in the same vain, it’s just as important to note that it was year one of the installation with less-than-stellar personnel everywhere you look and is juiced going into 2024. So, what made the 2023 defense “aggressively inconsistent” last season?
The perfect example of aggressive inconsistency was Minnesota’s pass rush. The Vikings sent blitzes at the opposing passer on 50.7% of pass plays, the most we’ve seen from any team since 2014. Digging deeper into that metric, they rushed six or more players on 26.3% of opposing dropbacks. The next-highest rate of six-plus rushers? 13.9%.
It would seem safe to assume that Minnesota would be in at least the top half of the NFL in terms of pressure rate, right? Wrong!
The Vikings came 21st in pressure rate and 29th in DVOA in plays where they sent those six or more rushers. FTN goes on to detail that on blitzes that didn’t create pressure, opposing offenses had a 63% success rate, the second-worst mark in the entire league. On snaps where they deployed cover 0, they allowed a 51% success rate and 8.3 yards per play.
These blitz rates put a large amount of stress on a secondary that was already mostly lacking true established talent. Instead, it had one veteran and a bunch of young guys trying to find their footing in the league. All the while, Mekhi Blackmon and Akayleb Evans had slower starts to the 2023 season, but both finished strong and on the correct side of the DVOA spectrum.
At the same time that the Vikings sent all of these crazy blitz packages at rates not seen in ages, they also led the NFL in the rate of only sending three or fewer rushers. On these reps, Minnesota only achieved a 24% pressure rate and DVOA of -25.0%. These marks are also less than stellar, with the three-man-or-less numbers being more forgiven since of course, it’s only three rushers.
This is why it’s so confusing to assess the Vikings’ defense in year one of Brian Flores. These underlying numbers all seem so inconsistent and even mediocre, yet it was near the top 10 in DVOA and was one of the more feared defenses in the NFL as the season went on. Granted, the defense did a complete 180 and was straight-up bad after halftime of the Bengals game, which does bring down the season-long metrics.
So, what made the Vikings’ defense work? It’s not some statistic you’ve never heard of proving it. It’s kind of simple and ties to human nature: opposing coaching staffs, game planners, and quarterbacks straight up did not know what the Vikings’ defense was going to do on a snap-to-snap basis. With the way Flores disguised his packages, opposing teams had no idea what Minnesota was doing, even if it looked obvious.
The fact that the Vikings defense was able to be this solid when all was said and done seems almost like a miracle in itself, and Minnesota loading up on players like Blake Cashman, Andrew Van Ginkel, Dallas Turner, and Jonathan Greenard with another year for Flores to install his defense makes this unit appear to be a force to be reckoned with in 2024, even with the loss of Danielle Hunter.
