The Vikings’ Calculations and The Dalton Dilemma
K. Joudry
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Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is a numbers nerd, so he’s well-equipped to navigate the complexities of NFL contracts, trades, and draft choices. Even still, the Vikings’ calculations are getting quite complex.
One outstanding item on the to-do list revolves around left guard Dalton Risner. On March 12th, the veteran offensive lineman took to social media to note that he “never asked for a bag” bur, rather, “a starting guard contract.” So far, that deal hasn’t arrived in Minnesota — or, for that matter, anywhere else — and the reason in Minnesota goes beyond just the cap space that would be chewed up by keeping him around TCO Performance Center.
The Vikings’ Calculations & The Dalton Risner Decision
In some senses, the Dalton Risner decision isn’t very difficult. The LG plays good football and is still only 28; the Vikings have a LG opening and like signing players in the prime of their careers.
Bring him back, right?
Well, not so fast. The first and most obvious issue is the money. Assume, though, that things aren’t outlandish and that the asking price is well within the finances to afford. Great. But then there’s the possibility of nullifying the potential compensatory selection that Minnesota is leaning on to restock the cupboards for next offseason.
Nick Korte is the compensatory picks specialist for Over the Cap. Throughout free agency, Korte has been keeping close tabs on outgoing and incoming talent around the NFL in an effort to demystify which teams are set to snag more draft picks in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Per Korte, the Vikings may have gone from scooping up a pair of 3rds to being down to just a single 3rd. The downgrade is coming from the decision to bring corner Shaquill Griffin to town. Bumping things up to a pair of 3rds, per Korte, may require Risner to agree to a good-size deal elsewhere.
As Korte explains, “I’m really curious what the base APY will be on [Griffin’s] contract. If it’s more than about $2.5M it could risk taking a 3rd round 2025 comp pick off the board for the Vikings unless they see another compensatory free agent leave.”
He goes on to describe the impact of some of the recent FA happenings: “Troy Dye won’t qualify as a compensatory free agent in favor of the Vikings or against the Chargers. That leaves Oli Udoh as a long shot to tank a possible Shaquill Griffin CFA qualifying contract to avoid canceling out a 3rd round 2025 comp pick. Unless Dalton Risner leaves.”
For our purposes, it’s that final line — Dalton Risner leaving — that is the most consequential. The basic idea is that if the interior lineman gets a strong deal somewhere else, the Vikings are once again in a good spot to pickup a pair of 3rds next year.
Of course, Adofo-Mensah isn’t unaware of the balance he’s looking to strike. All at once, he’s looking to field a competitive team in 2024, leave a pile of room in the budget for 2025 spending, have enough draft capital to maybe jump up for a QB in April, and (ideally) add some high-end compensatory selections for next year.
So, it’s complicated. A variety of factors are impacting the GM’s decision making.
While chatting with KFAN’s Paul Allen recently, the GM describes his understanding of where the compensatory selections are going. “There’s a calculation,” Adofo-Mensah notes, “so it could be two 3rds, but I’d be surprised if it wasn’t at least one 3rd and then some other ones.”
Minnesota’s GM is on record acknowledging that he’s expecting at least a 3rd to be added to his total in 2025. But then the possibility is there to gain another, provided things break a certain way in free agency. Bringing Dalton Risner back may undermine their chance to go get that second 3rd, so Adofo-Mensah will be considering that reality as he charts the best path forward for the Minnesota Vikings.
Earlier in the interview, Allen directly asks about Risner. Adofo-Mensah didn’t offer much in his answer: “Every option is on the table. That’s all I can say about that.”
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.