The Vikings at Lions: One Stat, Quote, and Matchup to Know Ahead of Week 18
Unless there’s a miracle, the Vikings’ 2023 season will end in disappointment. The injuries were too plentiful and miscues too multiple for Minnesota to find success. Week 18 is simply the final act in the tragic play.
Giving fans a better understanding of what’s to come for the Vikings at Lions involves PurplePTSD offering up a single statistic, quotation, and matchup to keep in mind. The hope, valued reader, is that the information contained in this piece can function as a bit of a primer for the Sunday afternoon matchup.
The Vikings at Lions: Week 18
Stat: 19/38
Expect Dan Campbell to go for it on 4th down. He has repeatedly proven that he’s going to give his guys a shot in these critical moments.
After 16 games, Campbell is up to 38 4th-down attempts. Converting 19 of them means Detroit possesses a 50/50 shot at continuing the drive or turning the ball over on downs. Put differently, the Lions are going to average a bit beyond 2.37 4th down tries per game and convert an average of 1.18 times per game.
Defensively, losing the 4th down battle is ultra discouraging. The group scrapes and claws to get off the field and then a bold decision maker — in this case, Mr. Campbell — rolls the dice. Putting up a brick wall and forcing a turnover on downs is invigorating; seeing the team pickup the 1st down is deflating.
Coming off a horrendous effort against Green Bay, the Vikings will be looking for their defense to respond when Dan Campbell decides to go for the kill shot on 4th down.
Quote: Kevin O’Connell Talks Flores Defense Getting Figured Out
Did Kevin O’Connell suggest that teams were starting to figure out his defensive coordinator’s scheme?
Take a look at the quote and decide for yourself: “At the same time, as they’ve put more on tape and more on tape, teams maybe honing in on certain ways that they want to play. And now it’s our time to either adjust or taking a look at it with a microscope and saying, ‘Hey, we just need to be better in our execution there, tighten up a little bit there.’ Understand formations and tells and tendencies to know and try to expect what you’re going to get.”
Coaching, at basically any level, becomes a lot easier once the code can be cracked. Break down what an opponent does in specific moments. In 3rd and 7+, what does a defense want to do? Does that change depending on how much time is left on the clock? What about where the ball is on the field? How do they respond to motion or to specific personnel packages? Where is the weakness in their zone coverage?
Being able to make educated guesses after recognizing patterns is paramount within a game where the actual play most often lasts just a few moments. The work off of the field in preparation is magnified in football in a manner that it simply isn’t in a sport like hockey or basketball.
Opponents have had plenty of time to see Flores on the mound. Yes, he can throw a pretty mean fastball and he’s capable of throwing his curve ball for strikes. Can he diversify things even further? Breaking some of his patterns and adding new pitches will be one way of reclaiming some former glory.
Matchup: Brian Flores vs. Ben Johnson
Let’s build off of the previous point.
When the full NFL offseason begins, Brian Flores and Ben Johnson will start competing in a different manner. Presumably, the impressive coordinators are going to be in consideration for (at least some of) the league’s various head coach openings.
With some serious talent deficiencies, Flores has led his side of the ball to a 12th-best placement by allowing an average of just 20.8 points against per game. Yes, the recent struggles have been discouraging, but the front seven needs to be overhauled and the youth movement in the secondary has entered a rough patch.
Even still, Flores took a floundering defense and turned it into an above-average unit. He deserves to be in the running for various head coach openings.
Meanwhile, Johnson is making Jared Goff look like a dangerous quarterback. He’s maximizing the talent from Amon-Ra St. Brown and coaxing major production out of rookies Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. Does that sound like the kind of coach teams would be interested in bringing in? One thinks of Carolina as a team that would welcome a QB whisperer who could get the most out of young talent (does anyone really want to coach in Carolina, though?).
Flores is 42 and Johnson is 37. Both fit into the youth movement taking place at head coach and both have proven to be excellent coordinators. Each will get one final regular season test to prove to the league’s powerful people that they’re worthy of taking on a head coach position.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.