The Vikings’ Gambler Quarterbacks: A Strategic Advantage
The Vikings’ three QBs — Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, and Brett Rypien — all have the same flaw: Recklessness.
As a prime example, we need look no further than Darnold’s recent bone-headed interception in the first half against San Francisco. On first and ten from the San Francisco 21-yard line, with the Vikings up by ten and methodically moving the ball on the ground, Darnold launched a pass into a sea of four 49ers defenders, which was intercepted by star linebacker Fred Warner.
That sort of pass is the hallmark of the Vikings’ QB room. Throughout their careers, Darnold, Mullens, and Rypien have TD/INT ratios of 1.16, 1.10, and 0.44, respectively. For comparison, the league average in 2023 was 1.8. In other words, our QBs cannot protect the football.
But how much does that matter?
The game — and our understanding of it — has changed significantly over the past few decades. One major lesson is the importance of possession and the relative unimportance of field position: the location of the football between the goal lines is much less important than who has it.
This principle can be seen, for instance, in the 4th down decision calculators sometimes shown on NFL broadcasts. These calculators consistently indicate that head coaches ought to punt less and “go for it” more since going for it can, at best, allow your offense to keep the ball, and at worst, it merely costs your defense some field position.
Another consequence of the relative unimportance of field position is that there isn’t such an enormous difference between an interception and a punt. A QB who takes risks, throws downfield, and moves the football at the expense of an occasional turnover is more valuable than a QB who protects the ball but can’t move the sticks.
The difference between modern value and traditional value can be seen in the following plot, which shows the relative importance of completion percentage, yards/attempt, TD/attempt, and INT/attempt for determining a QB’s expected winning percentage (yellow) and passer rating (blue).
The main thing to see here is the big discrepancy in the negative value of an interception. The passer rating formula — which was invented in 1971 and adopted by the NFL in 1973 — assigns a larger negative value to an interception than a positive value to a touchdown, as can be seen from the relative sizes of the last two blue bars in the plot above.
In contrast, as shown by the yellow bars, a linear regression model relating the four statistics above to QB winning percentage from 2020-2023 assigns a much larger positive value to a TD than a negative value to an INT. The modern game favors QBs (and coaches) who are willing to take risks.
Thus, it is perhaps unsurprising that the Vikings decided to fill their QB room with guys who are known for their “YOLO” approach to the position. One has only to watch backup QB Mullens’s 2023 Christmas Eve performance against the Detroit Lions — in which he threw 411 yards and four(!) interceptions — to know what brand of football we’ve signed up for this season. At present, QB1 Darnold’s average air yards per attempt ranks 3rd in the NFL behind only Derek Carr and Brock Purdy.
So far the Vikings’ strategy is working, and the offense has posted two impressive performances despite injuries to their top receiving threats in TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and Justin Jefferson.
Sam Darnold’s aggressiveness has led to a pair of interceptions, but it has also produced an incredible 97-yard touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson in a situation where most QBs would be looking for a short checkdown to get out of the shadow of their own goalposts.
Of course, while interceptions may not be as costly as once thought, they are still less than ideal. Darnold has shown some improvement in his decision-making ability so far this season, but he still has room for improvement. The Vikings’ continued success in 2024 will rely on his ability to keep his turnover rate low while maintaining his focus downfield.
